Raleigh, N.C. – The Ohio Governor’s race is looking like it could go either way three days out from the election. Ted Strickland has made a huge comeback in the final months of the campaign and now trails John Kasich only 49-48. PPP’s most recent previous poll, in late August, had found Strickland trailing by 10 points.
What Strickland has done over the last two months is bring the base home. He’s now winning 87% of the Democratic vote, up from only 78% in the previous poll. Democrats also look like they’ll now account for a larger share of the electorate, as the party’s voters have increased their interest in turning out as the election has moved closer.
If Kasich does end up winning it will be because he, like most Republican candidates nationally and particularly in the Midwest, is cleaning up with independents. He has an 18 point lead with them at 56-38.
Even though he’s made up a lot of ground in the last couple months Strickland remains a pretty unpopular Governor. Only 41% of voters say they approve of the job he’s doing while 50% disapprove. Usually those kinds of numbers would pretty much guarantee a loss for an incumbent. But Ohio voters’ attitude towards Kasich, as it has been throughout most of the cycle, is ‘meh.’ 43% of voters like him and 42% of voters don’t. That’s giving Strickland room to pick up support from some voters who aren’t that enthralled with the job he’s done.
While the Governor’s race in Ohio is all the sudden looking very interesting the Senate race is headed for a blowout. Rob Portman leads Lee Fisher 57-39. There’s no doubt Fisher has proven to be a pretty weak candidate but with Barack Obama’s approval spread in the state at 38/55 it’s pretty doubtful that any Democrat could have won a Senate election in Ohio this year.
“Ted Strickland’s chances of reelection are looking the best they have in months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “At this point it’s just a question of Democratic turnout- if there is a massive enthusiasm gap in the state Kasich will win. But if Democrats manage to exceed turnout expectations Strickland could win.”
PPP surveyed 1,356 likely Ohio voters from October 28th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Republican John Kasich and Democrat Ted
Strickland. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 49%
Ted Strickland …………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ted
Strickland’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Kasich?
Favorable ………….. 43%
Unfavorable……….. 42%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q4 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Lee Fisher and Republican Rob
Portman. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Lee Fisher………………………………………………. 39%
Rob Portman…………………………………………… 57%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lee Fisher?
Favorable ………….. 30%
Unfavorable……….. 46%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Portman?
Favorable ………….. 50%
Unfavorable……….. 25%
Not sure ……………. 25%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q9 Would you like John Boehner to be the next
Speaker of the House?
Yes………………………………………………………… 36%
No …………………………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate had been
Democrat Jennifer Brunner and Republican
Rob Portman, who would you have voted for?
Jennifer Brunner ……………………………………… 36%
Rob Portman…………………………………………… 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 49%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q12 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Q17 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 23%
No …………………………………………………………. 77%
