Raleigh, N.C. – Former Congressman and Fox News anchor John Kasich leads Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, 50-40, in PPP’s first poll of likely voters in the race. In the previous survey of registered voters in June, Kasich led only 43-41.
President Obama won Ohio by four points in 2008, but the likely 2010 electorate now reports having voted for John McCain by three—a seven-point shift in turnout which mirrors Kasich’s eight-point improvement in the horse race in the last two months.
The Republicans who do plan to vote are more united around Kasich than those in the overall electorate. In June, more than three-quarters of both parties rallied around their respective nominees, with 12-16% crossover support. Now, Kasich still pulls 15% of Democrats to Strickland’s 5% of Republicans, 89% of whom go for Kasich, with Strickland still at 78% of Democrats. Strickland has slightly improved among unaffiliateds, but Kasich still leads 44-33 among them.
Partisans are almost universally decided, but even if the unlikely occurs and the 23% of independents who are undecided go unilaterally toward Strickland, he still lags Kasich by 5 points.
“Republicans are united around John Kasich, and independents are likely to go strongly toward him as well. To win, Ted Strickland has the Herculean task of bringing disloyal Democrats back to the fold and getting more of his party faithful out to the polls than plan to vote now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
Complicating that is Ohioans’ views of how Strickland is handling his job. The governor gets a 34-52 job approval rating, one of the worst in the country. Only 67% of Democrats and 26% of independents approve.
PPP surveyed 475 likely Ohio voters from August 27th to 29th. The margin of error for each survey is +/-4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ted
Strickland’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 34%
Disapprove………… 52%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Kasich?
Favorable……………. 33%
Unfavorable ………… 33%
Not sure ……………… 33%
Q3 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Republican John Kasich and Democrat Ted
Strickland. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 50%
Ted Strickland …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Who would you rather have as President:
George W. Bush or Barack Obama?
George W. Bush ……………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q9 If you are white, 1. If African-American, press
2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If older than
65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
