Raleigh,
N.C. – If he decides
to run for Iowa’s open Senate seat in 2014, Steve King would be a front-runner
for the GOP nomination but would have a much tougher time winning the general
election, according to PPP’s latest poll.
In a
hypothetical four-way Republican primary contest, King would lead the pack with
41% support, followed by 22% for Tom Latham, 10% for Kim Reynolds and 9% for
Bob Vander Plaats. 17% were not sure who they want as next year’s Republican nominee.
49% of very conservative primary voters would back King.
63% of
primary voters view King favorably to 12% unfavorably. King would also be the
clear choice if he were only running against Latham and Vander Plaats or just
Latham.
King is
down by 7 to 11 points against Bruce Braley (38/49), Tom Vilsack (39/49), Dave
Loebsack (40/47) and Chet Culver (41/48). King loses moderate voters by roughly
40 points or more against each of these Democrats.
“Steve
King is the darling of Republican primary voters while simultaneously having no
appeal to voters in the middle,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “It’s the story of the last two election cycles for GOP Senate hopes.”
Republicans
would be much more competitive with Latham as their Senate candidate, partly
because he attracts more moderate voters. Latham trails Braley by 3 points
(41/44) and Vilsack by 4 points (46/42), and he leads Culver by 4 points
(45/41) and Loebsack by 3 points (43/40). All of these results are within the
margin of error. Latham’s +14 favorability rating is significantly higher than
the other GOP candidates who might run.
Braley
and Vilsack would be the toughest Democrats to beat in a general election.
Braley has a +5 favorability rating, but 48% of voters do not have an opinion
of him. Vilsack’s +14 favorability rating is higher and only 13% do not know
how they feel about him.
PPP surveyed 846 Iowa voters as well as 326 usual Republican
primary voters from February 1st to 3rd. The margin of
error for the overall sample is +/-3.4% overall and +/-5.4% for the GOP portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chet Culver?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Loebsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Vilsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Latham?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Reynolds?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Vander Plaats?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Steve
King, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 49%
Steve King ……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Tom
Latham, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 44%
Tom Latham……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Kim
Reynolds, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 44%
Kim Reynolds………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Bob
Vander Plaats, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 51%
Bob Vander Plaats …………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Chet Culver and Republican Steve
King, who would you vote for?
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 48%
Steve King ……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Chet Culver and Republican Tom
Latham, who would you vote for?
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 41%
Tom Latham……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Chet Culver and Republican Kim
Reynolds, who would you vote for?
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 42%
Kim Reynolds………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Chet Culver and Republican Bob
Vander Plaats, who would you vote for?
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 50%
Bob Vander Plaats …………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dave Loebsack and Republican
Steve King, who would you vote for?
Dave Loebsack ……………………………………….. 47%
Steve King ……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dave Loebsack and Republican Tom
Latham, who would you vote for?
Dave Loebsack ……………………………………….. 40%
Tom Latham……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q20 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dave Loebsack and Republican Kim
Reynolds, who would you vote for?
Dave Loebsack ……………………………………….. 41%
Kim Reynolds………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q21 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Dave Loebsack and Republican Bob
Vander Plaats, who would you vote for?
Dave Loebsack ……………………………………….. 49%
Bob Vander Plaats …………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q22 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Tom Vilsack and Republican Steve
King, who would you vote for?
Tom Vilsack…………………………………………….. 49%
Steve King ……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q23 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Tom Vilsack and Republican Tom
Latham, who would you vote for?
Tom Vilsack…………………………………………….. 46%
Tom Latham……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q24 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Tom Vilsack and Republican Kim
Reynolds, who would you vote for?
Tom Vilsack…………………………………………….. 46%
Kim Reynolds………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q25 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Tom Vilsack and Republican Bob
Vander Plaats, who would you vote for?
Tom Vilsack…………………………………………….. 52%
Bob Vander Plaats …………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q26 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q30 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Latham?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Reynolds?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Vander Plaats?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q5 Given the choices of Steve King, Tom Latham,
Kim Reynolds, and Bob Vander Plaats, who
would you most like to see as the Republican
candidate for Senate next year?
Steve King ……………………………………………… 41%
Tom Latham……………………………………………. 22%
Kim Reynolds………………………………………….. 10%
Bob Vander Plaats …………………………………… 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 If Kim Reynolds was not a candidate, who
would you most like to see as the Republican
candidate for Senate next year, given the
choices of Steve King, Tom Latham, and Bob
Vander Plaats?
Steve King ……………………………………………… 42%
Tom Latham……………………………………………. 23%
Bob Vander Plaats …………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Steve King and Tom Latham, who would you
vote for?
Steve King ……………………………………………… 50%
Tom Latham……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 31%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q10 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
