Raleigh, N.C. – Missouri Republicans want someone other than Peter Kinder to be their nominee against popular Gov. Jay Nixon next year, but so far, no one has stepped up who has the name recognition to challenge him. The only other announced candidate, Bill Randles, is a known quantity to 18% of primary voters, at most. So Kinder leads him, 34-14, with 53% undecided. But when voters are asked if they would generally prefer Kinder or someone else, only 22% choose Kinder, with 35% preferring someone else, and 43% undecided. In the wake of his personal scandals, Kinder’s numbers have dropped significantly since PPP last polled the state in May. Then, 37% had a favorable opinion of him, and only 12% unfavorable. Now that is 31-25.
In the same time frame, Sarah Steelman has jumped into a lead over Todd Akin for the right to face vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill. She leads him 40-29, with John Brunner at 6%, and 26% undecided. Akin has not picked up any supporters in the interim; he led Steelman 29-28 four months ago, with Brunner also still at 6% and Ed Martin, who has since dropped out, at 9%. The difference is that Steelman has reversed Akin’s leads with those who say they are somewhat conservative (36% of the electorate) and moderate (15%). Akin led with those groups by respective eight- and three-point margins in the previous poll, but Steelman now leads by whopping 21- and 33-point spreads, while also leading by one with the 46% plurality of voters furthest to the right.
Rick Perry has as dominant a lead here as in most states. 31% prefer him over Mitt Romney, who gets 15% of voters’ support. Not far behind are Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain, each at 10%, with Michele Bachmann at 9%, Ron Paul at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 2%, and Rick Santorum at 1%. Perry seems to be the proxy for an electable conservative alternative to Romney. In May, Mike Huckabee led Romney, 28-13. Perry tops Romney 42-9 among the very conservative and 26-17 with the center-right, while Romney leads only 28-15 with centrists. If the race were down to these two candidates by the time the Missouri primary rolls around, Perry would demolish Romney, 55-27.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Missouri Republican primary voters from September 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Kinder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Randles?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Brunner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Peter Kinder and Bill Randles, who
would you vote for?
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 34%
Bill Randles…………………………………………….. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q11 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican nominee for Governor next year to
be Peter Kinder, or would you prefer it was
someone else?
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else…………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Todd Akin, John Brunner, and Sarah Steelman,
who would you vote for?
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 29%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 6%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry,
Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would
you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 31%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 14%
Q14 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 55%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 46%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
