Raleigh, N.C. – Sarah Steelman has a decent but not insurmountable early lead in the Republican primary for the right to face Claire McCaskill, whom PPP showed as very vulnerable in a release last week. In the presidential contest, Mike Huckabee has slightly expanded his lead since PPP’s last measure of the field late last November, as Sarah Palin, previously in a statistical tie for the lead, has taken a plunge into a tie for third.
The Senate contest at this point is largely a function of name recognition. Even these frequent, heavily partisan voters are mostly unaware of all four potential candidates. 56% have no opinion of former Treasurer Steelman, 61% of Rep. Todd Akin, 75% of 2010 congressional candidate Ed Martin, and 81% of former state GOP chairwoman Ann Wagner.
Thus, Steelman earns 31% of voters’ preference as the nominee, followed by Akin’s 24%, with Martin and Wagner way back at 9% and 2%, respectively. 34% are undecided, unsurprising given the low profiles of this entire slate. Only Steelman and Martin have declared their candidacies so far.
Akin is probably the least likely to run, while Wagner is reportedly giving a bid more thought. Though Martin and Wagner get a little more of Akin’s support than she does, Steelman is only further strengthened relative to her opponents with Akin out of the race. She has 37% in the three-way variation, with Martin up to 18% and Wagner 11%, and 34% still undecided.
“Steelman’s the nominal early frontrunner but that’s just because the other Republicans looking at the race are so obscure at this point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Any of these folks could end up winning and so could someone who’s not even on the table right now.”
In the White House jockeying, Huckabee is up from 27% to 29%, while Palin has plummeted from a close 25% to only 14% in a matter of three months. That trails Newt Gingrich’s 19% (up from 15%) and just edges out Mitt Romney’s 13% (down from 14%).
PPP surveyed 400 usual Missouri Republican primary voters from March 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 53%
Unfavorable……….. 24%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 73%
Unfavorable……….. 12%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 63%
Unfavorable……….. 27%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 47%
Unfavorable……….. 32%
Not sure ……………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 7%
Not sure ……………. 61%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Martin?
Favorable ………….. 16%
Unfavorable……….. 9%
Not sure ……………. 75%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable ………….. 29%
Unfavorable……….. 15%
Not sure ……………. 56%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Wagner?
Favorable ………….. 11%
Unfavorable……….. 8%
Not sure ……………. 81%
Q9 Given the choices of Todd Akin, Ed Martin,
Sarah Steelman, and Ann Wagner who would
you most like to see as the Republican
candidate for Senate next year?
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 24%
Ed Martin ……………………………………………….. 9%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 31%
Ann Wagner……………………………………………. 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 34%
Q10 If the choices were just Ed Martin, Sarah
Steelman, and Ann Wagner who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for Senate next year?
Ed Martin ……………………………………………….. 18%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 37%
Ann Wagner……………………………………………. 11%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 34%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt
Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 2%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 29%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
