Raleigh, N.C.– Republican Pat McCrory’s lead over Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton remains basically unchanged at 7 points since PPP last tested the race in July. While the favorability ratings for both candidates have ticked down in the past month, signaling the arrival of general election season, voters have shown little movement between the two major party candidates and Libertarian Barbara Howe.
McCrory has lost 3 points on his net favorability rating, bringing him to +7 at 41% favorable to 34% unfavorable. However, this negative change comes entirely from Democratic voters, 10% of whom have slipped from the “not sure” category to unfavorable since July. In fact, this decline among McCrory’s partisan opponents is answered by a 10 point increase in favorability with independents.
There are fewer bright spots in the Democrat’s numbers this time around. Last month, it looked as though a lack of name recognition was Dalton’s main obstacle to tightening the race. Dalton’s favorability has dropped among both Democrats and independents, bringing his net rating in his own party to a meager +2.
“The Governor’s race hasn’t moved a bit since the primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Pat McCrory has a persistent 6-7 point lead.”
Linda Coleman fares better in her race for Lieutenant Governor than her would-be predecessor up ballot. Against Republican Dan Forest, she is down only 1 point with more than a quarter of the electorate undecided. Former Democratic Senate candidate Elaine Marshall is on pace to make a comeback after her decisive defeat at the hands of Richard Burr two years ago. She leads Ed Goodwin for Secretary of State by 6 points, 43% to 37%. Democrats continue to hold a razor thin lead in the generic legislature ballot at 1 point. Perhaps as a silent prod to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, 71% of NC voters said that their candidates for Governor should release tax returns.
PPP surveyed 813 likely North Carolina voters from August 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Walter Dalton, Republican Pat McCrory, and
Libertarian Barbara Howe. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 38%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 45%
Barbara Howe…………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Democrat Linda Coleman and Republican Dan
Forest. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Linda Coleman………………………………………… 37%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q5 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican Ed
Goodwin. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 43%
Ed Goodwin ……………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 The candidates for Superintendent of Public
Instruction are Democrat June Atkinson and
Republican John Tedesco. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
June Atkinson …………………………………………. 44%
John Tedesco………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 The candidates for Labor Commissioner are
Democrat John Brooks and Republican Cherie
Berry. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
John Brooks……………………………………………. 34%
Cherie Berry……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q8 The candidates for Insurance Commissioner
are Democrat Wayne Goodwin and Republican
Mike Causey. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Wayne Goodwin ……………………………………… 40%
Mike Causey …………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .22%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. .29%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 Do you think the candidates for Governor
should release their tax returns, or not?
They should ……………………………………………. 71%
They should not ………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q20 Were you born in North Carolina or in another
state?
North Carolina…….. .62% Another state ……… .38%
Q21 How long have you lived in North Carolina: 10
years or less, 11 to 20 years, 21 to 30 years,
31 to 40 years, or more than 40 years?
10 years or less ….. .11%
11 to 20 years …….. .17%
21 to 30 years …….. .18%
31 to 40 years …….. .15%
More than 40 years .39%
Q22 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 14%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 17%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
