Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Debbie Stabenow is not up for re-election until 2012, but in this anti-incumbent political environment, and with her job approval rating slightly negative, a bare plurality of voters say they plan to vote for her unnamed Republican opponent next election. Stabenow can be reassured, however, that a name which is frequently speculated as that potential challenger, former Governor John Engler, is not very well liked either.
40% of Michigan voters approve of the job Stabenow is doing in Washington, to 43% who disapprove. Unusually, Democrats are a little more intensely in favor of her than Republicans are against her, with 77% of Democrats approving of her job performance and 73% of Republicans disapproving. 12% of Democrats disapprove, though, to only 9% of Republicans who approve. Independents mirror the overall numbers, at 37-43.
When asked if they would vote to re-elect Stabenow in two years, 43% say they would, to 48% who say they would cast a vote for a generic Republican. Independents go for the Republican 42-37, while 8% of Democrats do the same, to 3% of Republicans who pledge for Stabenow.
Engler is not the universally popular figure who could easily take advantage of Stabenow’s vulnerability. His personal favorability margin is 37-49, and he is only in the black with his own base. Republicans express a positive opinion, 60-21, but Democrats are down on him, 11-77, and independents, 38-50.
“Stabenow’s numbers are artificially low because Republicans are much more fired up than Democrats for the midterm election and that will probably change by the time 2012 comes around,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Still she seems likely to face tougher opposition in her second bid for reelection than she did in her first one.”
PPP surveyed 890 Michigan voters from May 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 41%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 51%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not Sure…………….. .14%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Generally speaking, would you vote to re-elect
Debbie Stabenow in 2012, or would you vote
for her Republican opponent?
Stabenow……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Engler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 6%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q11 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
