Raleigh, N.C. – Debbie Stabenow’s leads over her two potential fall opponents are down a bit from two months ago, but she is still in no danger of losing re-election at this point. She tops her most likely foe, Pete Hoekstra, by 14 points (52-38); it was 16 points (53-37) in PPP’s May poll. Stabenow also leads Hoekstra’s main primary obstacle from the right, Clark Durant, by 17 points (51-34), down from 22 in May (53-31).
The incumbent senator has her base pretty much locked up, with a 90-5 lead over Hoekstra among Democrats, and she is ahead 50-33 with independents, who make up a 40% plurality of the electorate. Stabenow also pulls 12% of Hoekstra’s party.
With less than two weeks to go until the primary, Hoekstra has only increased his edge over Durant and the others. He already has a majority, 51%, with Durant at 17%, two others combining for 5%, and 26% still undecided. In May, Hoekstra’s lead was 42-11.
Gov. Rick Snyder’s numbers are at their best since he took office. 40% now approve and 42% disapprove of a man who was once one of the most unpopular governors in the country. Snyder’s figures are up from May’s 37-52 and February’s 40-47. If Snyder were to stand for re-election today, he would narrowly prevail over a generic Democrat, 42-40. 79% of Democrats would vote against him and 79% of Republicans for him, but independents prefer him by 12 points (43-31).
Next year, however, Snyder may find himself with fewer legislators in his corner. Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot by eight points (45-37).
Several measures which may be on this fall’s ballot are up by modest levels of support right now. By ten points (44-34), Michiganders favor a constitutional amendment to secure collective bargaining rights for both public and private employees, and by 20 points (50-30), voters favor 25% of the state’s energy having to come from renewable sources by 2025. But they also support by seven points (40-33) a measure requiring tax increases to be approved by a statewide vote or by two-thirds of the legislature, and by ten points (41-31), they want to keep the controversial emergency managers law.
PPP surveyed 579 Michigan voters, including an oversample of 452 usual Republican primary voters, from July 21st to 23rd. The margin of error for the general electorate sample is +/-4.1%, and +/-4.6% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clark Durant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q4 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Clark Durant, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 51%
Clark Durant……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Pete Hoekstra, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 52%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q7 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican Rick
Snyder or his Democratic opponent?
Rick Snyder ……….. .42%
Democratic
opponent……………..40%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q9 If there was an election for state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 Would you support or oppose a constitutional
amendment guaranteeing the right to collective
bargaining for all employees, either in the
public or private sectors?
Support ………………………………………………….. 44%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q11 Would you support or oppose an initiative
requiring any increase in state taxes to be
approved by a two-thirds majority in the
legislature or by a statewide vote?
Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q12 Would you support or oppose an initiative
mandating that 25% of Michigan’s electricity
come from renewable energy sources by
2025?
Support ………………………………………………….. 50%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 Do you support or oppose the proposed new
bridge over the Detroit River connecting Detroit
and Windsor?
Support ………………………………………………….. 41%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 There will be a referendum on Public Act 4,
Michigan’s emergency managers law, on the
November ballot. If the election was today,
would you vote yes, to keep the emergency
managers law, or no, to over turn it?
Yes………………………………………………………… 41%
No …………………………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 40%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clark Durant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 The Republican candidates for Senate are
Clark Durant, Randy Hekman, Pete Hoekstra,
and Peter Konetchy. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Clark Durant……………………………………………. 17%
Randy Hekman ……………………………………….. 4%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 51%
Peter Konetchy ……………………………………….. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 66%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
