Polls

Stabenow remains favored for re-election

| Tom Jensen

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SenateGraph Raleigh, N.C. –
Though Senator Debbie Stabenow looked vulnerable when the race was polled in December, Stabenow improved her position in March and remains strong today. Stabenow garners at least 50% of the vote against all of her possible opponents. Stabenow leads former congressman Pete Hoekstra 50-41 (50-38 in March), former Kent County judge Randy Hekman 52-36 (52-33), Oakland County Water Resources Commissioner John McCulloch 52-32, and businessman Peter Konetchy 52-31.

Stabenow holds the lead by garnering at least 90% with Democrats who make up 40% of the voters in Michigan. Although against Hoekstra Stabenow has a small deficit with independents, 38-44, this isn’t enough to put Hoekstra within striking range of a victory. In a Presidential year, it’s very difficult for a Republican to win Michigan without making inroads with Democrats.

Despite Stabenow’s leads, she has only a mediocre 46-40 approval rating (effectively unchanged from 46-39 in March). Stabenow does well with Democrats, 75-12, gets a small amount of crossover support from Republicans, 15-72, but has a deficit with independents 37-47. While not spectacular, Stabenow’s approval ratings are enough to get the job done for re-election, and it will likely take a strong opponent to dislodge her.

While a strong candidate is needed, the Republicans have yet to find it. Hoekstra is the most popular with a tepid 31-30 favorability rating. The rest of the field is completely unknown and unpopular with the few who do know them. Hoekstra is followed by Hekman at 4-16, McCulloch at 5-18, and Konetchy at 3-18.

“Pete Hoekstra gives Republicans a credible candidate in this race but he is certainly an under dog,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s not going to be easy for the GOP to win a Senate race in a Presidential year, as Spence Abraham learned the first time Debbie Stabenow ran for this seat.”

PPP surveyed 593 Michigan voters from July 21th to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Randy Hekman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Konetchy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John McCulloch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Randy Hekman, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 52%
Randy Hekman ……………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Pete Hoekstra, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 50%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Peter Konetchy, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 52%
Peter Konetchy ……………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
John McCulloch, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 52%
John McCulloch ………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%

Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

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