Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Debbie Stabenow leads both of her main opponents in the 2012 U.S. Senate race by double digits. Stabenow leads Republican Clark Durant 50-33, and leads Pete Hoekstra 51-37. Her job approval rating stands at 47% approval and 41% disapproval.
Stabenow benefits from the relative anonymity of her Republican opponents. Clark Durant remains largely unknown to voters – just 8% hold a favorable opinion of him, while 24% see him unfavorably and 69% have no opinion. Pete Hoekstra is better known but may be in an even worse position – only 35% of voters have no opinion on him, but the ones that do don’t like him. He’s at 28% favorability and 38% unfavorability.
Looking at the Republican Senate primary field, Hoekstra holds a wide lead over all other candidates, pulling 42% of Republican primary voters. No other candidate breaks double digits, but Clark Durant comes closest at 9%. 34% of Republican primary voters are undecided. Hoekstra holds a net favorability rating among Republican primary voters (52-18), while Durant suffers from lack of name recognition (12% unfavorable, 15% unfavorable, 73% no opinion).
PPP tested voters’ reaction to the TV advertisement Pete Hoekstra ran during the Super Bowl. 54% of voters overall were familiar with the ad. Among those familiar, 45% said that ad made them less likely to vote for Hoekstra, while 37% said it would not make a difference. Just 16% of voters said that ad would make them more likely to vote for Hoekstra.
“Debbie Stabenow’s lead has increased and Pete Hoekstra’s negatives have risen in the wake of his controversial ad,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It appears to have been a flop with Michigan voters.”
PPP surveyed 404 Republican primary voters and 560 Michican voters between February 10th and 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9% for the Republican primary poll and +/-4.14% for the general election poll. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clark Durant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q4 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Clark Durant, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 50%
Clark Durant……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Pete Hoekstra, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 51%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Are you familiar with the TV advertisement
Pete Hoekstra ran during the Super Bowl, or
not?
Familiar with it…………………………………………. 54%
Not familiar with it ……………………………………. 46%
Q7 (Among those familiar:) Did Hoekstra’s ad
make you more or less likely to vote for him, or
did it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 16%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 45%
Didn’t make a difference …………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q14 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 30%
No …………………………………………………………. 70%
