Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s first poll of the Michigan Senate
race since switching to likely voters continues to find Debbie Stabenow with a
solid lead over Pete Hoekstra, 50-41. Stabenow has her party more unified
around her, taking 88% of Democrats to Hoekstra’s 81% of Republicans. She’s
also up 53-36 with independents. Stabenow is running almost even among white
voters, trailing Hoekstra just 46-45, and when you add in her overwhelming
support among non-whites you get her overall solid lead.
Michigan voters aren’t in love with Stabenow. They’re evenly divided on her
job performance with 43% approving and 43% disapproving. But they continue to
have a dim view of Hoekstra with 32% rating him favorably to 39% with an
unfavorable opinion. That’s about where his numbers have been ever since his
controversial Super Bowl ad- he’s had a hard time bouncing back from that.
“Debbie Stabenow’s had a healthy lead in our polling all year,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She tends to run a little ahead of
Barack Obama so it seems unlikely she’ll lose unless he does too. She remains
the clear favorite in this race.”
We polled three of this fall’s ballot initiatives and found little change
from our Michigan July poll on any of them. The constitutional amendment to
guarantee collective bargaining rights is ahead by a 44/37 margin. The one to
mandate that 25% of Michigan’s electricity comes from renewable energy sources
by 2025 is up 49/31. And in what would be a big victory for Rick Snyder, voters
are saying by a 40/31 margin that they will keep the emergency managers law.
There are a lot of undecideds on all these so the numbers could shift but for
now they’re favored for passage.
Speaking of Snyder for the first time since he took office he has positive
approval numbers in our polling. 45% of voters like the job he’s doing to 42%
who disapprove, and he would lead a generic Democratic opponent for reelection
by a 46/41 margin. Even just a little over three months ago Snyder was at 37/52
so clearly he’s improved his standing with voters in the state over the summer.
PPP surveyed 815
likely Michigan voters from August 31st to September 2nd . The
margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or
authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .43%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q3 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Pete Hoekstra. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 50%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q5 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican Rick
Snyder or his Democratic opponent?
Rick Snyder ……….. .46%
Democratic
opponent……………..41%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q7 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Democrat Carl Levin
or his Republican opponent?
Carl Levin…………… .51%
Republican
opponent……………..40%
Not sure …………….. . 9%
Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote
Democratic or Republican?
Democratic…………. .45%
Republican…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q9 Would you support or oppose a constitutional
amendment guaranteeing the right to collective
bargaining for all employees, either in the
public or private sectors?
Support ……………… .44%
Oppose ……………… .37%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q10 Would you support or oppose an initiative
mandating that 25% of Michigan’s electricity
come from renewable energy sources by
2025?
Support ……………… .49%
Oppose ……………… .31%
Not sure …………….. .20%
Q11 There will be a referendum on Public Act 4,
Michigan’s Emergency Managers law, on the
November ballot. If the election was today
would you vote yes, to keep the emergency
managers law, or no, to over turn it?
Yes……………………. .40%
No …………………….. .31%
Not sure …………….. .29%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jennifer Granholm?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Engler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Blanchard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of William Milliken?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
