Raleigh, N.C. – Just three months ago, PPP found Debbie Stabenow on shaky ground for re-election to a third term. But Michigan’s junior senator has rebounded since then, and now leads any Republican tested against her by at least ten points. Stabenow’s closest lead is over popular former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, 48-38. But in December, Land trailed only 45-41. Stabenow has also jumped out to a larger lead against Rep. Pete Hoekstra, at 50-38; Hoekstra was Stabenow’s closest challenger in the previous poll, lagging only 45-44. Two candidates not tested last time, former state GOP chairman Saul Anuzis and Randy Hekman, are down by respective 52-35 and 52-33 margins.
The main problem for the Republicans is that Democrats are re-energized and have returned Michigan to its usual blueness after a bad 2010. Republicans outnumbered Democrats by three points in a September PPP poll and were in equal number in December, but now self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans, 41-28, and even independents, 31% of the electorate, are more numerous. So despite the fact that Land and Hoekstra lock up the GOP about as well as Stabenow rallies Democrats to her side, they still trail by wide margins. Stabenow also holds leads with independents of six over Land, seven over Hoekstra, 16 over Anuzis, and 21 over Hekman.
In December, Stabenow broke even on the job approval front, with 41% approving and 40% disapproving, but that has climbed to a 46-39 spread now, putting her at about average for senators across the country. It is no surprise Hoekstra and Land run closest to Stabenow, since they are by far the best-known of her potential opponents, but still fewer than 60% of voters are aware of them. That plunges to only 20% for Anuzis and 17% for Hekman. Hoekstra is seen favorably by 30% and unfavorably by 28%, while Land has almost a 2:1 margin, 37-19. That is a slight improvement for both since December, mainly with Republicans for Land but across the board for Hoekstra.
“Debbie Stabenow, like Sherrod Brown in Ohio where we polled last week, is looking much better than she did three months ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “As voters in these Midwestern states have turned against their new Republican Governors it appears their Democratic Senators up for reelection next year are the great beneficiaries.”
PPP surveyed 502 Michigan voters from March 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Saul Anuzis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Randy Hekman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Saul Anuzis, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 52%
Saul Anuzis …………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Randy Hekman, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 52%
Randy Hekman ……………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Pete Hoekstra, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 50%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Terri Lynn Land, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 48%
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
