Raleigh, N.C. – With yesterday’s release showing President Obama in strong shape to win Michigan again in 2012, Debbie Stabenow may need a boost to be re-elected herself. She leads every Republican tested against her, but all but one within the margin of error.
Voters are split on Stabenow’s performance in office right now, 41% approving and 40% disapproving, but only two of her opponents are more popular. 10th-District Congresswoman Candice Miller and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land both post strong 36-21 favorability ratings, though 43% are still unaware of either. Miller’s internals are unusual in that 34-39% of each partisan group has a positive opinion of her, and she is more popular with independents than her own partymates. Land is also well liked by independents and almost breaks even with Democrats. Former congressman Pete Hoekstra, who failed in his primary bid for governor this year, has a 28-31 mark, while former governor John Engler stands at 33-45. The candidate who’s showed the most interest in running so far, businessman Tim Leuliette, is unsurprisingly a non-entity to 81% of the electorate.
Despite not being the best liked of the four major potential candidates, Hoekstra does the best against Stabenow, trailing her only 44-45. Miller nearly matches him, down only 41-43. Stabenow tops Land, 45-41; Engler, 49-42; and Leuliette, 47-30.
Except against the unknown Leuliette, Stabenow does not have an overwhelming party-unity advantage, unlike President Obama—in fact, she even narrowly trails Engler and Hoekstra in that department. But she does win independents against all five Republicans. Because of her favor with independents personally, Miller holds Stabenow to only a 39-36 advantage with unaffiliated voters, but that opens up to 43-33 over Land, 47-37 over Hoekstra, 54-35 over Engler, and 48-14 over Leuliette. With Stabenow and the Republicans generally all locking up their respective bases, independents are the story explaining the varying margins.
“If the election were today, Debbie Stabenow would probably win re-election, but if the Republicans field a strong challenger, this has the potential to be a very competitive race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,224 Michigan voters from December 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Jennifer Granholm’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Engler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Leuliette?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Candice Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
John Engler, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 49%
John Engler…………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Pete Hoekstra, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 45%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Terri Lynn Land, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 45%
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Tim Leuliette, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 47%
Tim Leuliette …………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican
Candice Miller, who would you vote for?
Debbie Stabenow ……………………………………. 43%
Candice Miller …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
