Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s final New Hampshire poll finds there’s a better chance of Republicans winning the race for Governor than there is of Democrats winning the race for US Senate. That says a lot about the massive shift in the political climate we’ve seen over the course of 2010. Kelly Ayotte leads Paul Hodes 56-41 in the Senate contest while John Lynch has a more modest 53-44 advantage over John Stephen in his quest for reelection as Governor.
Ayotte has rebounded strongly from a turbulent primary season that saw her favorability numbers decline precipitously. 57% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to only 34% with a negative one. That +23 net favorability represents a 35 point improvement from early September, right before the primary, when her standing was at -12 with 47% of voters seeing her negatively to only 35% with a positive opinion.
Hodes meanwhile never emerged as a strong candidate. 50% of voters see him unfavorably to only 34% who rate him in a positive light. Independents don’t like him and the number of Democrats who dislike him is greater than the number of Republicans who do like him.
Meanwhile in the Governor’s race it appears John Lynch will get reelected, but not by nearly the kind of gaudy margin he has become accustomed to. For instance he’s winning independents 56-40, an unusual feat for a Democrat this year. But that’s nothing compared to the 79-19 advantage exit polls showed for him with them in 2008. And the 22% of Republicans he’s winning is an unusual amount of crossover support for any candidate this year, but it’s less than the 31% of them he got the last time around. Nevertheless barring a major shift in the final few days of the campaign he should survive for another term.
“When Judd Gregg announced his retirement I don’t think anyone could have imagined Republicans would retain his seat by such a large margin,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats are lucky John Lynch is so popular or else the GOP would be headed for a sweep in New Hampshire this year.”
PPP surveyed 1,308 likely New Hampshire voters from October 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Republican
Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Paul Hodes. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Kelly Ayotte…………………………………………….. 56%
Paul Hodes …………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Hodes?
Favorable ………….. 34%
Unfavorable……….. 50%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kelly Ayotte?
Favorable ………….. 57%
Unfavorable……….. 34%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
John Lynch and Republican John Stephen. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
John Lynch …………………………………………….. 53%
John Stephen………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Lynch’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Stephen?
Favorable ………….. 37%
Unfavorable……….. 40%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Judd
Gregg’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Jeanne Shaheen’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q11 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 47%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 28%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q16 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 8%
No …………………………………………………………. 92%
