Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Snyder trounced Democrat Virg Bernero last November to take Michigan’s governorship, but if voters could do it over right now, they would narrowly elect Bernero instead. Snyder has gotten less attention for it than neighboring Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, but has also proposed weakening the collective bargaining rights of public employees, among other measures that are proving very unpopular.
Snyder was one of the most popular candidates anywhere in the country last year, measuring a 43-28 favorability rating in a September PPP poll, the exact opposite of Bernero’s standing with likely voters. But Snyder is now little more popular than ex-governor Jennifer Granholm. In a December PPP poll, only 34% of voters approved of Granholm’s performance, and 57% disapproved. Snyder almost matches that, with a 33-50 spread. 20% of his own voters and 44% of independents disapprove, and more Democrats (80%) disapprove than Republicans approve (68%).
Bernero would edge out Snyder, 47-45, if voters could choose their governor again. Snyder beat Bernero by 18 points, and the fact that this poll’s respondents reported voting for him by a third of that margin reflects how large the 2010 electorate’s pro-Republican enthusiasm gap was in a state that normally favors Democrats. On top of the swing in turnout between November and now, Bernero has still flipped voters toward him by eight points because 9% of Snyder’s backers would now vote the other way, while only 3% of Bernero’s voters defect. Part of Democrats’ problem last fall was that their voters did not turn out as heavily as Republicans’ did. Those who did not vote favor Bernero, 37-32.
Michiganites do not favor recalling Snyder before the next election, however. 49% oppose and only 38% support the prospect of a recall. Voters do support collective bargaining for public employees, 59-32, and a constitutional amendment to guarantee that right by a narrower 49-37, and they oppose Snyder’s move to let state managers void union contracts and dissolve school districts and local governments, 50-32.
“Last year our polling consistently found remarkably positive numbers for Rick Snyder with independents,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That didn’t last very long.”
PPP surveyed 502 Michigan voters from March 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you think Rick Snyder is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 15%
Too conservative……………………………………… 36%
About right ……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you think public employees in Michigan
should or should not have a right to collective
bargaining for wages, benefits, and working
environment rules?
Should have a right to collective bargaining…. 59%
Should not………………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Would you support or oppose an amendment
to the state constitution guaranteeing the right
to collective bargaining?
Support ………………………………………………….. 49%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Do you support or oppose a new law allowing
state appointed managers to void public union
contracts, fire local officials, and dissolve
communities or school districts if they deem it
necessary in order to avoid an emergency
financial situation?
Support ………………………………………………….. 32%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Would you support or oppose recalling Rick
Snyder from office before his term is up?
Support ………………………………………………….. 38%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Virg
Bernero or Republican Rick Snyder?
Virg Bernero……………………………………………. 47%
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 In the election for Governor last year did you
vote for Democrat Virg Bernero or Republican
Rick Snyder, or did you not vote in the
election?
Virg Bernero……………………………………………. 43%
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 49%
Didn’t vote/Don’t remember ………………………. 8%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 6%
Q10 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 36%
No …………………………………………………………. 64%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
