Raleigh, N.C. – Michigan has the largest pro-Republican enthusiasm gap compared with the 2008 electorate that PPP has measured since moving to a likely voter model in the last two months. And incumbent Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm, with a 29-63 approval rating, is the fifth least popular executive PPP has found this year. In this climate, it is no surprise Republican Rick Snyder is leading Democrat Virg Bernero in the governor’s race, 52-31.
Republicans make up 39% of this year’s electorate to Democrats’ 36% in what is normally a moderately blue state. President Obama won the state by almost 17 points two years ago, but voters now report having voted for him over John McCain by only one.
Even if the partisan breakdown of this year’s turnout matched that of 2008, however, Snyder would still be on top roughly 48-36. That is because Snyder has an enormous 58-18 lead among the quarter of voters calling themselves independents, and because he has sewn up 82% of his party’s voters to Bernero’s paltry 66% of his, with Snyder getting a pretty healthy 17% level of crossover support. Bernero claims only 8% of Republicans.
The two candidates have exactly opposite favorability ratings, Snyder at a positive 43-28 and Bernero the reverse. Bernero has significantly increased his name recognition since PPP last polled the race in May, when he was at a measly 11-12, with 77% having not enough information to form an opinion. But voters have moved against him by 14 points on the margin, while voters have split just narrowly in favor of Snyder, who was at 25-13 four months ago. Snyder has moderate appeal, confounding general views of the GOP. By a 42-26 margin, voters see the Republican Party as too conservative versus “about right,” but by a 46-26 margin, they see Snyder as “about right” versus too conservative.
“Rick Snyder’s 21 point lead shows what can happen for Republicans when they nominate a moderate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But what’s happened in other primaries across the country suggests they haven’t gotten the message.”
PPP surveyed 497 likely Michigan voters from September 17th to 19th. The margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Jennifer Granholm’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virg Bernero?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Rick Snyder and Democrat Virg Bernero. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 52%
Virg Bernero……………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Jocelyn Benson and Republican
Ruth Johnson. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Jocelyn Benson ………………………………………. 30%
Ruth Johnson………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat David Leyton and Republican Bill
Schuette. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
David Leyton…………………………………………… 36%
Bill Schuette……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q7 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 22%
Too conservative……………………………………… 42%
About right ……………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Do you think the Rick Snyder is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 12%
Too conservative……………………………………… 26%
About right ……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%