Raleigh, N.C. – Olympia Snowe’s approval rating is down slightly since PPP last surveyed Maine in March, but she is still one of the most popular senators in the country. 57% approave and 36% disapprove of her job performance, a dip from 60-32. But in early tests, she beats two almost unknown possible Democratic opponents by margins of 42 and 47 points, and even well-known but less likely Democratic challengers, Rep’s Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud, would fall by respective 17- and 19-point spreads.
PPP’s Tuesday release showed Snowe’s vulnerability to a primary challenge as being less than it was before, partially because she has moved to the right a little in the last year or two. So more of the general electorate now sees her as being too far to that extreme than they did in March, but a majority still see her views as being “about right.” 53% say that now, almost unchanged from the 52% PPP found seven months ago. But those saying she is too conservative are up to 24% from 16%, with those saying she is too liberal down to 21% from 27%. Consequently, far more voters see her as belonging in her current party, the GOP, than before (47% versus 28%), and fewer as an independent (24% versus 41%). PPP found in March that she would still handily dispatch any opponents in a three-way contest.
Though the last poll showed Democrats thought Snowe’s issue positions were more “about right” than too conservative by a 2:1 margin, they still say the same by a narrower 48-41 spread, a rare thing for a Republican. Because of that, Snowe earns 28-47% of the Democratic vote in the four matchups, a large part of her success in this Democratic-leaning state. She also wins independents by 24 to 57 points, and pretty much locks up her own party’s support.
“If Olympia Snowe wins nomination for another term she’s close to unbeatable,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats really just have to root for her to lose in the primary.”
PPP surveyed 673 Maine voters from October 28th to 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Olympia Snowe’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .57%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. . 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Michaud?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chellie Pingree?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott D’Amboise?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Ian Dodge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matthew Dunlap?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Hinck?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Olympia Snowe and Democrat
Mike Michaud, who would you vote for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 54%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Olympia Snowe and Democrat
Chellie Pingree, who would you vote for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 55%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Olympia Snowe and Democrat
Matthew Dunlap, who would you vote for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 64%
Matthew Dunlap………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Olympia Snowe and Democrat Jon
Hinck, who would you vote for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 65%
Jon Hinck……………………………………………….. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q12 Do you think Olympia Snowe is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 21%
Too conservative……………………………………… 24%
About right ……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q13 Do you think Olympia Snowe most properly
belongs in the Democratic Party, the
Republican Party, or as an independent?
In the Democratic Party ……………………………. 29%
In the Republican Party…………………………….. 47%
As an independent…………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Scott D’Amboise and Democrat
Matthew Dunlap, who would you vote for?
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 23%
Matthew Dunlap………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Scott D’Amboise and Democrat
Jon Hinck, who would you vote for?
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 26%
Jon Hinck……………………………………………….. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Andrew Ian Dodge and Democrat
Matthew Dunlap, who would you vote for?
Andrew Ian Dodge …………………………………… 25%
Matthew Dunlap………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Andrew Ian Dodge and Democrat
Jon Hinck, who would you vote for?
Andrew Ian Dodge …………………………………… 25%
Jon Hinck……………………………………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q18 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 38%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q22 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
