Raleigh, N.C. – Olympia Snowe has worn out her welcome with conservative Republicans in Maine and looks to be highly susceptible to a primary challenge if she runs again in 2012.

By a 63-29 margin Republicans in the state say they would choose a more conservative alternative to Snowe if they were presented the opportunity in the next election.  That desire is very closely intertwined with a sentiment among GOP voters there that Snowe is too liberal.  64% of voters in her party hold that opinion with 32% thinking that she’s about right and only 4% believing she’s too conservative.

Tested against a named potential opponent, 2006 Gubernatorial nominee Chandler Woodcock, Snowe trails by a 38-33 margin.  Not surprisingly there’s a large ideological divide on that question.  Moderates prefer Snowe by a 61-19 margin, while conservatives go for Woodcock 47-20.  The problem for Snowe is that the Republican electorate in Maine is moving to the right with 69% of voters describing themselves as conservatives and only 30% as moderates.  The party’s been going in a different direction from her ideologically since she was first elected to the Senate.

“If the successes of the Tea Party movement across the country this year embolden a conservative challenger to Olympia Snowe she’s going to be in big trouble,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “She may need to become an independent or even a Democrat to survive politically in the future.”

A look ahead to the 2012 Republican Presidential field in the state finds Mitt Romney as an early favorite with Sarah Palin as the runner up.  Romney gets 27% to 21% for Palin with Newt Gingrich at 15% and Mike Huckabee at 14%.  Maine appears to be less keen on the Southern candidates in the race than folks in the rest of the country are.

PPP surveyed 584 Republican primary voters from September 2^nd to 6^th.  The margin of error is +/-4.1%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Olympia Snowe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q2 Do you think Olympia Snowe more properly
belongs in the Democratic Party or the
Republican Party?
Democratic Party …………………………………….. 52%
Republican Party …………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 Do you think Olympia Snowe is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 64%
Too conservative……………………………………… 4%
About right ……………………………………………… 32%

Q4 If the 2012 Republican primary for Senate was
between Olympia Snowe and a more
conservative challenger, who would you vote
for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 29%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q5 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2012 were Olympia Snowe and Chandler
Woodcock, who would you vote for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 33%
Chandler Woodcock…………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%

Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin,
Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney, who would you
vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Someone else…………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Conservative…………………………………………… 69%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%