Raleigh, N.C. – Since PPP last polled Maine’s Republican primary electorate right before last November’s election, Senator Olympia Snowe’s troubles have only grown, with an even larger majority of her base thinking her too liberal and eager to nominate someone to her right. On top of that, two candidates have announced bids to oppose her re-nomination. The problem for these challengers is that still few people know who they are, and they are not well-liked by those who do. So Snowe still has a significant plurality in an early test of the primary race. But that election is more than a year away, and Andrew Ian Dodge and Scott D’Amboise still have plenty of time to make their case.
Politicians usually are viewed very favorably by their own partisans, but Snowe barely breaks even on the job-performance front, with 47% approving and 44% disapproving. That is a huge decline from a still respectable if weak 53-39 margin last October. 58% view Snowe as too liberal for their taste (up from 50%), with only 37% saying her beliefs are “about right” (down from 45%). In that context, more think she belongs as an independent (34%) or even a Democrat (33%) than think she is at home in her current and lifelong party (27%). So it is no surprise that 58% would cast a ballot for a generic “more conservative challenger,” with only a third sticking with their incumbent.
Yet for all her weakness, she still pulls 43% in a three-way primary, with D’Amboise at 18% and Dodge at 11%. A large 28% are undecided, meaning that not only can Snowe’s level of support decline, but those on the fence can easily consolidate behind D’Amboise or Dodge and put one of them over the top. To do that, though, both will have to improve their respective 17% and 14% name recognition and -7 and -10 net favorability margins.
“It continues to look like it will be very difficult for Olympia Snowe to win a Republican primary next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Getting less than 50% against a couple of no-names and trailing a generic conservative by 25 points is not the recipe for fending off a serious challenge.”
Maine continues to buck Mitt Romney’s New England strength. He places fourth at only 15%, behind Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich (19% each) and Sarah Palin (17%). In October, Palin led with 23% to Romney’s 18%, Huckabee’s 16%, and Gingrich’s 14%.
PPP surveyed 434 usual Maine Republican primary voters from March 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 54%
Unfavorable……….. 24%
Not sure ……………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 56%
Unfavorable……….. 22%
Not sure ……………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 59%
Unfavorable……….. 33%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 47%
Unfavorable……….. 31%
Not sure ……………. 22%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Olympia Snowe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott D’Amboise?
Favorable ………….. 5%
Unfavorable……….. 12%
Not sure ……………. 84%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Ian Dodge?
Favorable ………….. 2%
Unfavorable……….. 12%
Not sure ……………. 86%
Q8 Do you think Olympia Snowe is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 58%
Too conservative……………………………………… 3%
About right ……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q9 Do you think Olympia Snowe most properly
belongs in the Democratic Party, the
Republican Party, or as an independent?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 27%
Independent……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Olympia Snowe, Scott D’Amboise, and Andrew
Ian Dodge who would you vote for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 43%
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 18%
Andrew Ian Dodge …………………………………… 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q11 Generally speaking if the Republican primary
for Senate next year was between Olympia
Snowe and a more conservative challenger,
who would you vote for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 33%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt
Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 2%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 13%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
