Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest look at the Nevada Senate race finds the same thing most of its polling on the contest has found: a narrow advantage for Dean Heller. The incumbent leads with 46% to 43% for Shelley Berkley. Four PPP polls conducted since last April have found a 4 point Heller lead, a 3 point advantage, a tie, and now another 3 point advantage.

One thing worth noting since PPP’s last poll of the race is that Berkley’s favorability numbers have taken a bad turn. 33% of voters say they have a positive opinion of her to 40% with a negative one.  The 3 previous polls had found her at 38/35, 33/33, and 34/31. Berkley’s had some not so great press coverage and it does appear to be impacting her image.

Heller’s approval numbers have pretty consistently stayed on narrowly positive ground in the low 40’s or upper 30’s since he was appointed to the Senate last spring. 43% of voters approve of him to 36% who disapprove. His higher than normal 23% approval rating with Democrats is the key to his success in a state that looks like it will probably go for Barack Obama again in 2012.

There are two key things driving Heller’s ability to lead in the state even as PPP numbers that will be released tomorrow show Barack Obama at his greatest strength there since being elected. One is that Heller has the upper hand with independents, leading 52-39. The other is that he’s peeling off a healthy percentage of the Democratic vote, getting 16% across party lines.

“The Nevada Senate race remains one of the closest in the country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This could come down to how strong Barack Obama’s coattails are. He’s doing a lot better than Berkley with Hispanic and black voters, but if they end up voting the entire Democratic ticket it could put her over the top.”

PPP surveyed 553 Nevada voters from March 29^th to April 1^st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dean
Heller’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .43%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .21%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q3 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley
Berkley, who would you vote for?
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 46%
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q7 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%