Raleigh, N.C. – PPP last polled Florida just before the gubernatorial primary that shot insurgent Republican Rick Scott over establishment pick Bill McCollum, a surprising result to most but one in keeping with PPP’s final poll in that race. Since then, independent former Democrat Bud Chiles has dropped out of the race, and endorsed Sink, but with a larger enthusiasm gap at Scott’s back, and a consolidated GOP base, Sink now leads by a slightly smaller margin.
Sink tops Scott, 46-41; she had led, 41-34, with Chiles at 8%, in August. The biggest difference, aside from the four-point shift in Republican enthusiasm, is that Scott has made a huge gain post-primary, as expected, in sewing up GOP support. While embroiled in a nasty battle with McCollum, Scott was pulling only 57% of his party’s vote, with 22% undecided. Now, he has caught up with Sink, getting 77%; Sink is up slightly from 72% to 76% of Democrats.
Countering the trends favoring Scott is that Sink has become more popular with the 19% of the electorate calling themselves independents, while Scott has become less so, each by a 13- or 14-point magnitude. Because of that and Chiles’ exit, unaffiliateds have moved toward the Democrat by 18 points on the margin, from a 37-28-13 lead over Scott and Chiles to a more than 2:1 lead now, at 53-26.
“Alex Sink remains in strong shape to take the Florida governor’s mansion from the Republicans for the first time in 16 years, the last big Republican wave election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This would be one of the brightest spots for Democrats across the country and what is likely to be an otherwise dreary election night.”
PPP surveyed 448 likely Florida voters from October 9th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Alex Sink and Republican Rick Scott. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Alex Sink………………………………………………… 46%
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Sink?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Scott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
