Raleigh, N.C. – Despite still being better liked than the new incumbent he almost defeated last year, Brian Dubie would fall in a rematch with Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin by eight points if next fall’s election were held today, up from two points. Shumlin leads any of his other, less known potential foes by 17 to 27 points.
Shumlin’s 45-36 approval-disapproval margin puts him at about the median for the 42 sitting governors on which PPP has polled. Dubie’s personal favorability numbers outdo that, with 48% seeing him positively and only 33% negatively. But in a head-to-head, Shumlin prevails 48-40. Dubie has the GOP locked up, 90-3, and gets 10% of Shumlin’s partisans, but trails with the large independent bloc, 47-38. They make up the 40% plurality of voters in the state, with Democrats next at 37%.
The other Republicans are known entities to anywhere from only 12% to 53% of voters, and while all but Lauzon and Brock are seen favorably, their faceless status means Shumlin unsurprisingly trounces them at this early stage. He leads Phil Scott, 50-33; Tom Salmon, 50-31; Mark Snelling, 50-29; Randy Brock, 51-29; and Thom Lauzon, 52-25.
Despite more of them being undecided in these matchups, Shumlin maintains 48-51% of the independent vote, for leads of 19 to 30 points. More Republicans are also on the fence than Democrats, unlike in the Dubie sequel, meaning as these candidates increase their profile, the race will get closer. But Vermont’s Democratic identification advantage and progressive-leaning independents give Shumlin a bit of a floor.
“Peter Shumlin’s not as popular as any of his statewide peers,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But his numbers are solid enough that he would still get reelected right now, especially with a Presidential year electorate that’s likely to be more friendly to Democrats than the one he was elected in last year.”
PPP surveyed 1,233 Vermont voters from July 28th to 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Peter Shumlin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Randy Brock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Dubie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Lauzon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Salmon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Scott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Snelling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Peter Shumlin and Republican
Randy Brock, who would you vote for?
Peter Shumlin …………………………………………. 51%
Randy Brock …………………………………………… 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Peter Shumlin and Republican Brian
Dubie, who would you vote for?
Peter Shumlin …………………………………………. 48%
Brian Dubie…………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Peter Shumlin and Republican Thom
Lauzon, who would you vote for?
Peter Shumlin …………………………………………. 52%
Thom Lauzon………………………………………….. 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Peter Shumlin and Republican Tom
Salmon, who would you vote for?
Peter Shumlin …………………………………………. 50%
Tom Salmon……………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Peter Shumlin and Republican Phil
Scott, who would you vote for?
Peter Shumlin …………………………………………. 50%
Phil Scott………………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Peter Shumlin and Republican Mark
Snelling, who would you vote for?
Peter Shumlin …………………………………………. 50%
Mark Snelling………………………………………….. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 32%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 9%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 24%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 40%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
