Polls

Shifting GOP 2012 Race Still Has No Frontrunner

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C.There continues to be no pacesetter nationally in the burgeoning Republican presidential field for 2012.  In May, four candidates were bunched between 20 and 25% of the vote each.  This month, the same four candidates are still in a statistical tie between 15 and 25%, but their relative positions have changed.

Mitt Romney tops the slate with 25%, to Mike Huckabee’s 22, Sarah Palin’s 19, Newt Gingrich’s 15, and Ron Paul’s 6, with 5% preferring someone else and 6% undecided.  In May, Huckabee was at 25, Romney 23, Gingrich 21, Palin 20, and Paul 8.

Romney now leads with conservatives and Huckabee with moderates; Romney tends to do best with moderates and either Huckabee or Gingrich best with conservatives in most of PPP’s statewide and national polls.  Romney has also taken a 29-22 lead over Huckabee with women, a group Huckabee had led 27-22 over Romney last month.  Palin continues in third with her own gender, and now does slightly better with men. 

In the Northeast, Romney and Gingrich are essentially tied, 23-22, with Palin and Huckabee at 13; last month, it was Palin 23, Romney 22, and Gingrich and Huckabee 20.  Huckabee continues to win the South with 30%, down from 34%.  Romney has moved up there to 24%, to Palin’s 20, and Gingrich’s 13, versus Palin’s 20% and Romney and Gingrich’s 17% in May.  Huckabee and Palin are still locked at 26 and 22, respectively, in the Midwest, while Romney and Gingrich have declined from 21 and 20 to 17 and 15.  In the West, Romney was tops at 41% in May, to Gingrich’s 30, with the rest far behind; now, Romney has 35% to Palin’s 21%, Gingrich’s 15, and Huckabee’s 13.

“The big picture on the Republican race remains unchanged,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Romney, Huckabee, Palin, and Gingrich all have solid amount of support but none of them are coming close to breaking away from the pack yet.”

PPP surveyed 401 Republican primary voters from June 4th to 7th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………. 53%
Unfavorable ………… 15%
Not Sure……………… 32%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 15%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 25%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 46%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 28%

Q6 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney who
would you support?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 22%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Someone else…………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Conservative…………………………………………… 65%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman……………………………………………………. 45%
Man…………………………………………………………. 55%

Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Q10 If you live in the Northeast, press 1. If the
South, press 2. If the Midwest, press 3. If the
West, press 4.
Northeast ……………………………………………….. 17%
South …………………………………………………….. 35%
Midwest …………………………………………………. 25%
West ……………………………………………………… 23%

Related Polls