Polls

Sherrod Brown up eight over Josh Mandel

| Dustin Ingalls


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
The Ohio Senate
race has tightened a bit in the last month, but incumbent Democrat Sherrod
Brown maintains a high single-digit advantage over his Republican challenger,
State Treasurer Josh Mandel.  Brown leads
48-40 among likely voters, down a tick from the 47-37 margin PPP found in early
August.

The closure is due mostly to voters souring on Brown and growing a little
fonder of Mandel as they get to know him better.  42% approve and 44% disapprove of Brown’s job
performance, versus 41-37 in the last survey. 
Mandel is seen favorably by a third and unfavorably by 44%, a bump from
26-42 last time.  While Brown is not a
particularly popular figure, Mandel is one of the weakest Republican candidates
in the country.

Further, unlike in some races in which a challenger is less known than the
office’s current occupant, Mandel stands little to gain from raising his
profile unless he also drastically improves his image.  Among voters who already have an opinion on
both Brown and Mandel, whether positive or negative, Brown is up by 12
points.  On top of that, Mandel cannot
hope that the undecideds fall according to general partisan preferences or that
he receives downballot love from Mitt Romney supporters.  Undecideds in the Senate race are split evenly
between President Obama and Romney and between Democratic and Republican
congressional candidates.

“Sherrod Brown’s had a consistent good sized lead in our polling all year,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Josh Mandel has not
proven to be a very strong candidate.”

Speaking of the generic congressional ballot, there has been a huge shift on
that front in the last month.  While
Republicans led by four points then (45-41), Democrats lead by two now (46-44).

Voters are confused about Issue 2, which would establish a bipartisan
redistricting commission.  When asked the
exact ballot language, it fails by five points (33-38), but last month, support
for an independent commission was passing by 13 points (37-24).

PPP surveyed 1,072 likely Ohio voters from
September 7th to 9th. The margin of error for the overall
survey is +/-3.0%.  This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q3 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 48%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .14%

Q5 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican John
Kasich or his Democratic opponent?
John Kasich ……….. .45%
Democratic
opponent……………..43%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Strickland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican John Kasich and Democrat Ted
Strickland, who would you vote for?
John Kasich ……….. .44%
Ted Strickland …….. .45%
Not sure …………….. .11%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rob
Portman’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .36%
Disapprove…………. .28%
Not sure …………….. .35%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of House
Speaker John Boehner’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .36%
Disapprove…………. .45%
Not sure …………….. .19%

Q10 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q11 Issue 2 would remove the authority of elected
representatives and grant new authority to
appointed officials to establish congressional
and state legislative district lines. It would
create a state-funded commission of appointed
individuals from a limited pool of applicants to
replace the aforementioned. The commission
would consist of 12 members as follows: four
affiliated with the largest political party, four
affiliated with the second largest political party,
and four not affiliated with either of the two
largest political parties. Affirmative votes of 7 of
12 members are needed to select a plan. If the
election was today, would you vote for or
against Issue 2?
For ………………………………………………………… 33%
Against…………………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q12 Do you think early voting should be available
the weekend before the election, or not?
It should …………………………………………………. 58%
It should not ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Husted?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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