Raleigh, N.C. – GOP attack ads against Senator Sherrod Brown have weakened his position heading into re-election, but he is still in decent shape for a second term. Brown’s approval rating is down from 39% approving and 28% disapproving when PPP last polled the state in May to only 37-34. As with President Obama, in yesterday’s release, almost all of the movement has come from Republicans hardening against him, from 43% to 54% disapproval. Independents have also shifted from 35% to 40% disapproval.
As his net approval has declined eight points, so has Brown slipped by six or seven points against two of his potential foes. He leads Rep. Jim Jordan, 47-35, but that is down from 49-31 three months ago. He also tops former State Senator Kevin Coughlin, 47-33, versus 51-30 in May. Against his best-known opponent, though, Brown is at about the same standing as before, leading 48-33. New State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the GOP establishment’s pick for the nomination, is up from 31%. A matchup with ousted but still popular Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel would result in a 46-34 Brown lead.
To some extent, Brown benefits from a field of unknown and disliked opponents. Still two-thirds of voters have no opinion of Mandel, and those who do have moved against him slightly, from 15% favorable and 18% unfavorable to 14-20. 71% are unfamiliar with Rep. Jim Jordan (9-19 from 10-17) and 77% with former State Senator Kevin Coughlin (5-19 from 4-16). Because of this anonymity, considerably more Republicans and independents are undecided than Democrats. But Brown’s leads with independents are such that even assigning the undecideds proportionately to where the decided voters fall, Brown would still lead by almost identical margins of 12 to 14 points.
“Sherrod Brown continues to show a persistent double digit advantage,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s not completely unbeatable but this is definitely looking like a second tier pick up opportunity for the GOP.”
PPP surveyed 792 Ohio voters from August 11th to 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .37%
Disapprove…………. .34%
Not sure …………….. .28%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kevin Coughlin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Jordan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Tressel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican
Kevin Coughlin, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 47%
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jim
Jordan, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 47%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh
Mandel, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 48%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jim
Tressel, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 46%
Jim Tressel……………………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
