Raleigh, N.C. – Sherrod Brown’s approval rating has inched upwards since PPP last polled Ohio in August, but his two possible opponents are the ones who have picked up ground in the meantime. Still, Brown is favored for a second term in the Senate.
Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, 48-40. Brown has treaded water, but Mandel is up from 33% of the vote two months ago. The other Republican, former State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, has netted only three points in that period, trailing 48-37, up from 47-33 in the previous poll. The improvement for the GOP contenders is strange, not only because Brown’s approval rating is up from 37-34 to 40-35, but because neither has increased his name recognition. Two-thirds still have no opinion of Mandel, and 77% are unaware of Coughlin.
Most of the change in the horseraces comes from Republicans and independents leaving the fence, and most of them are siding with the Republican candidates, a potentially worrying sign for Brown. But the math remains in his favor. Even if all the rest of the undecided Republicans and independents fall to the GOP nominee, and the undecided Democrats fall proportionately to where they are now, Brown would win with about 53% of the vote against Coughlin and 52% versus Mandel. So the high level of undecided Republicans and independents makes only four or five points of difference if everything else holds. It would take an erosion in Brown’s Democratic support or in Democratic turnout to change the game. The potential is there for the former—19% of Democrats disapprove of the senator’s job performance. But 15% of Republicans also approve, and when it comes time to vote, neither he nor the Republicans can muster much crossover support at this point.
“Josh Mandel is starting to consolidate the Republican vote and that has this race looking more competitive,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The good news for Sherrod Brown is that he’s already pretty close to the 50% mark.”
PPP surveyed 581 Ohio voters from October 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve ……………… .40%
Disapprove………….. .35%
Not sure ……………… .24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kevin Coughlin?
Favorable…………………………………………………. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 77%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable…………………………………………………. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………… 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 67%
Q4 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Kevin
Coughlin, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………….. 48%
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………… 15%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh
Mandel, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………….. 48%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………… 12%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………….. 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………….. 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………… 8%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………….. 10%
Somewhat liberal ………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………….. 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………… 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………… 19%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ……………………………………………………. 51%
Man…………………………………………………………. 49%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat …………………………………………………. 47%
Republican……………………………………………….. 37%
Independent/Other …………………………………….. 16%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White……………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American ………………………………………. 13%
Other……………………………………………………….. 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29……………………………………………………. 14%
30 to 45……………………………………………………. 26%
46 to 65……………………………………………………. 40%
Older than 65 ……………………………………………. 20%
