Raleigh, N.C. – Just as in yesterday’s release that showed President Obama enjoying a surge in Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown has almost doubled his lead over likely Republican opponent, State Treasurer Josh Mandel, in the three weeks since PPP last polled the race.
In mid-October, Brown topped Mandel by a 48-40 margin. That is now 49-34. This latest poll was taken among likely voters in Tuesday’s election which saw the overwhelming upheaval of John Kasich’s anti-labor bill. 30% of the Republicans who turned out voted against Senate Bill 5, and they are much more open to voting for both Obama and Brown than the general GOP electorate. 14% of the GOP are defecting to Brown now, twice as many as in the previous poll. Independents have also moved from 44-41 in favor of Mandel to 38-34 for Brown. Brown’s own party is now slightly more united behind him as well, from 83-8 to 85-5.
Though still not stellar, Brown’s approval rating has risen a hair from 40-35 to 42-33. His new colleague Rob Portman continues to be a nonentity to his constituents; 25% approve and 24% disapprove of his performance so far.
“Our polls are pretty consistently finding Sherrod Brown close to that magic 50% mark,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The race will tighten up but a year out from the election Brown’s prospects look pretty good for reelection.”
Redistricting may make some of their districts harder to win, but Democrats could still make gains or at least hold their current seats in the state’s House delegation. They have a 10-point lead in the generic ballot, with 49% of Ohioans favoring the Democratic candidate in their district to 39% for the Republican. Independents prefer the GOP, 38-31, but Democrats are in lock-step behind their own candidates, 94-3, while Republicans are a little less united right now, 84-8.
PPP surveyed 1,022 likely Ohio voters from November 4th to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rob
Portman’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .25%
Disapprove…………. .24%
Not sure …………….. .51%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. .25%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q4 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh
Mandel, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 49%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 If there was an election for Congress today, do
you think you would vote for the Democratic or
Republican candidate from your district, or are
you not sure?
Democratic candidate ………………………………. 49%
Republican candidate ………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
