Raleigh, N.C. – Since PPP last polled on Sherrod Brown’s re-election bid in March, the freshman Ohio Senator’s chances of earning a second term have remained formidable, beating any Republican thrown at him by 17-21 points, up from 15-19 two months ago. Last Friday’s release showed former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell as Republicans’ overwhelming current preference for their nomination, but tested for the first time against Brown, even he cannot come any closer to toppling the incumbent at this early stage.
Blackwell trails, 51-33. Treasurer Josh Mandel and Rep. Jim Jordan post similar 48-31 and 49-31 marks, almost identical to their 48-32 and 49-30 deficits in March. Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor is behind, 50-31, the same deficit as March’s 49-30. Former State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, also tested for the first time, lags by the largest margin, 51-30.
As more voters begin to pay attention, the race will get tighter, as far more Republicans and independents are undecided than Democrats, whom Brown has almost entirely locked up. But while he is roughly tied with independents, Brown takes 11-13% of the GOP vote, a healthy level of crossover support in this state and political environment—something Republicans will have to cut into to have even a shot at beating Brown.
Still roughly a third of his constituents are not familiar enough with Brown and his work to have an opinion on his job performance, but those who do have a good impression. 39% approve and 28% disapprove, similar to his 40-30 mark two months ago. Brown also takes advantage of the facelessness of his prospective challengers. None of them is known to much more than half of the electorate, nor does any of them more than break even on the favorability front. Blackwell is the best known but least liked.
“This does not look right now like it’s going to be a top tier race next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Sherrod Brown is popular enough and Republicans are struggling to find a strong candidate.”
PPP surveyed 565 Ohio voters from May 19th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Blackwell?
Favorable ………….. 21%
Unfavorable……….. 34%
Not sure ……………. 46%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kevin Coughlin?
Favorable ………….. 4%
Unfavorable……….. 16%
Not sure ……………. 80%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Jordan?
Favorable ………….. 10%
Unfavorable……….. 17%
Not sure ……………. 74%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable ………….. 15%
Unfavorable……….. 18%
Not sure ……………. 68%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mary Taylor?
Favorable ………….. 18%
Unfavorable……….. 18%
Not sure ……………. 64%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Ken
Blackwell, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 51%
Ken Blackwell …………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican
Kevin Coughlin, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 51%
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jim
Jordan, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 49%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh
Mandel, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 48%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican
Mary Taylor, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 50%
Mary Taylor …………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
