Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s first poll of next year’s Ohio Senate race last December showed first-termer Sherrod Brown in perilous shape even against little-known potential GOP opponents. But in a reflection of how much Governor Kasich’s actions on collective bargaining have engaged Democrats and turned independents sharply back Democrats’ way, Brown is now leading all six candidates tested against him by 15-19 points.
After trailing Brown only 40-38 last time, Lt. Governor Mary Taylor now lags 49-30. Rep. Jim Jordan is behind Brown by the same margin, but was down only 43-35 in December. Secretary of State Jon Husted is down 49-34, a decline from his 43-38 deficit in the previous poll. Tested for the first time, Rep. Steve LaTourette trails 48-30, and state Treasurer Josh Mandel lags 48-32. PPP also tested unlikely candidate, comedian Drew Carey, and he also fell to Brown by a 49-34 margin.
Brown still has a 40% approval rating, but his disapproval level has decreased from 37% to 30% in the last three months. That is because Republicans have moved from 62% disapproval to only 51%, and independents have flipped from 28-48 in disapproval to 43-24 in approval. None of his opponents is well-known, even Cleveland native Carey, of whom 58% have no opinion. Those who do fall 29-13 in his favor, something none of the others can say. The rest have barely positive or barely negative ratings, and 72-83% of voters are unaware of them.
Because of this anonymity, 22-29% of Republicans are undecided in each matchup, roughly twice as many as Democrats. This suggests that once the nominee is crowned next spring, he or she will start to close the gap as GOP voters fall in line. But they will have to reverse Brown’s progress with independents. After at best breaking even with them in the last poll, Brown now holds leads of 18 to 25 points with this group. He has also improved significantly with his base since December, taking 83-86% of Democrats and losing only 3-6% to the GOP candidates.
“Sherrod Brown appears to be in a much stronger position now than he was just three months ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There’s been a very significant shift in the Ohio political landscape toward the Democrats.”
PPP surveyed 559 Ohio voters from March 10th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Drew Carey?
Favorable ………….. 29%
Unfavorable……….. 13%
Not sure ……………. 58%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Husted?
Favorable ………….. 13%
Unfavorable……….. 15%
Not sure ……………. 73%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Jordan?
Favorable ………….. 7%
Unfavorable……….. 10%
Not sure ……………. 83%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve LaTourette?
Favorable ………….. 13%
Unfavorable……….. 12%
Not sure ……………. 75%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable ………….. 13%
Unfavorable……….. 12%
Not sure ……………. 75%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mary Taylor?
Favorable ………….. 15%
Unfavorable……….. 13%
Not sure ……………. 72%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican
Drew Carey, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 49%
Drew Carey…………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon
Husted, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 49%
Jon Husted……………………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jim
Jordan, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 49%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican
Steve LaTourette, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 48%
Steve LaTourette……………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh
Mandel, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 48%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican
Mary Taylor, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 49%
Mary Taylor …………………………………………….. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
