Raleigh, N.C. – Sherrod Brown ousted Mike DeWine from the Senate by over 12 points four years ago, but in a potential 2012 rematch, the two are tied. Worse, Brown can now muster no more than an eight-point lead against three other opponents whom three-fifths to three-quarters of the state have not heard of.
Brown and DeWine are deadlocked at 43% each. DeWine may not run again, having just been elected state attorney general last month. But three other candidates who could jump into the fray to challenge the vulnerable Brown are incoming secretary of state Jon Husted, 4th-District Congressman Jim Jordan, and incoming Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor. Despite being an unknown quantity to 65% of Ohioans, Taylor comes closest to leading Brown, trailing only 38-40. Next is Husted (unknown to 62%), with a 38-43 deficit, and finally Jordan (unknown to 73%), trailing 35-43.
Brown’s ceiling right now is a dangerously low 43%, and he is only narrowly winning these hypothetical matchups because an unusually high 14-38% of Republicans and independents are undecided. Granted, 8-15% of Democrats are also unsure of their vote, and since they make up a 44% plurality of the electorate, them coming back to the fold could make a big difference in Brown’s level of support. But the Republicans stand more to gain as the campaign begins and their profiles rise. DeWine has a 30-43 favorability rating, worse than Brown’s 40-37 job approval rating, yet the two tie because independents who do not like either would rather vote for someone new.
Independents side against Brown’s job performance by a 28-48 margin. In the horse races, he essentially ties each of the Republicans with unaffiliateds, doing no better than a 32-30 lead against Jordan. Brown also gets only 72-79% of Democrats. While that does beat each of the Republicans’ support levels with their own party, that is not surprising since he is far better known than all but DeWine.
“Sherrod Brown won by a wide margin in 2006 because it was a strongly Democratic year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he hasn’t proven to have much appeal to Republicans and independents and that could make his quest for reelection a tough one.”
PPP surveyed 510 Ohio voters from December 10th to 12th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ted
Strickland’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Kasich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
George Voinovich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Portman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike DeWine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Husted?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Jordan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mary Taylor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Mike
DeWine, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 43%
Mike DeWine ………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon
Husted, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 43%
Jon Husted……………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jim
Jordan, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 43%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican
Mary Taylor, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 40%
Mary Taylor …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
