Raleigh, N.C. – Democrats have a good chance to flip both of New Hampshire’s U.S. House seats this fall. In the 1st District, former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter leads her successor Frank Guinta by four points (47-43). Meanwhile, in the 2nd District, Rep. Charlie Bass and Ann McLane Kuster are tied at 42%.
Kuster has a name recognition problem that Shea-Porter does not. Having been in the office she is trying to reclaim, Shea-Porter is actually slightly more known to her district’s voters than is the current incumbent who beat her in 2010. But Bass has a much larger profile than Kuster does in their district. Among voters who have an opinion on both of them, whether positive or negative, Kuster actually leads by 17 points (56-39), indicating that as voters get to know her better, she could jump out to a lead.
Guinta (36-44) and Bass (34-49) each have negative approval ratings because Democrats dislike them more than Republicans like them, and independents are also pretty down on them. Voters are split on Shea-Porter (42% favorable, 42% unfavorable), but those who are familiar with Kuster like her somewhat strongly (35-24) because Democrats like her more than Republicans dislike her, and independents see her in a good light.
Shea-Porter is winning over more Republican support (14%) than Guinta is Democratic votes (8%), though she trails slightly with independents (40-44). Kuster also lags with nonpartisan voters (36-44), and 12% of each party’s voters cross over for the opposition. The reason she has more room to grow her support than do Bass or Shea-Porter is that more Democrats are undecided than are Republicans.
“Both of New Hampshire’s House seats look like sheer toss ups,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The old adage of people hating Congress but liking their Congressman doesn’t apply here- they don’t care for their individual members either.”
PPP surveyed 502 New Hampshire 1st Congressional district voters and 642 2nd Congressional district voters from May 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the CD1 survey is +/-4.4%, and +/-3.9% for the CD2 survey. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
CD-1 Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Frank Guinta’s job
performance?
Approve …………….. .36%
Disapprove…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carol Shea-Porter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 If the candidates for Congress were
Republican Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol
Shea-Porter, who would you vote for?
Frank Guinta…………………………………………… 43%
Carol Shea-Porter……………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
CD-2 Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Charlie Bass’ job performance?
Approve …………….. .34%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann McLane Kuster?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q3 If the candidates for Congress were
Republican Charlie Bass and Democrat Ann
McLane Kuster, who would you vote for?
Charlie Bass …………………………………………… 42%
Ann McLane Kuster …………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
