Raleigh, N.C. – A month after the Pennsylvania primary, Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey are dead even in the race to replace Arlen Specter in the U.S. Senate, at 41% each.

The last time PPP polled the contest, almost three months ago, Toomey held a 42-36 lead.  Sestak has made up the difference by consolidating his support among Democrats, liberals, and moderates.  He now has almost as much support among Democrats as Toomey does with the GOP.  Last time, Toomey was pulling 76% of his own party to Sestak’s 59% of his.  That disparity is now only 73-70 in Toomey’s favor.  Toomey maintains a 70-12 lead among the 39% share of the electorate which labels itself conservative, but Sestak has moved into a 52-26 lead with the 43% moderate plurality, versus 45-29 last time.  With the remainder, liberals, Sestak is now up 78-10, after winning 65-16 previously.

Toomey has countered by boosting his backing with the more conservative independents, but that is a comparatively much smaller group in this state than in others.  Sestak led with unaffiliated voters 35-34 in the previous poll, but Toomey is now ahead 41-21.  With a margin of error of about 14% for this subsample of only 8% of Pennsylvanians, however, fluctuations like this are not uncommon.

Both candidates have moved their favorability ratings from slightly negative to slightly positive since April 1^st.  With greater publicity now that they are the chosen nominees, they are essentially equally popular.  30% and 29% have favorable opinions of Toomey and Sestak, respectively, while 28% view each unfavorably.

“Joe Sestak is tied with Pat Toomey even though we see a Pennsylvania electorate for this fall that is much more Republican friendly than the one that turned out two years ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “If Democrats can get their voters more engaged they’ll be favored here.”

PPP surveyed 609 Pennsylvania voters from June 19^th to 21^st.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 7%

Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 51%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 10%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Arlen
Specter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 15%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Sestak?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 44%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat Toomey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 42%

Q6 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat
Toomey. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Joe Sestak……………………………………………… 41%
Pat Toomey ……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%

Q7 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 5%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 8%

Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%