Raleigh, N.C. – Labor is poised for a big victory in Ohio Tuesday. PPP’s final poll on Issue 2 finds 59% of voters plan to reject Senate Bill 5, with only 36% voting for approval.
Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there’s division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor’s signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.
If this margin holds on Tuesday night it will be a humilating defeat for John Kasich. Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove. If Ohio voters could do it over again they’d reelect Ted Strickland by a 55-37 margin over Kasich, and although they don’t have an opportunity for a redo on the Gubernatorial election the likely results of the Senate Bill 5 referendum on Tuesday can be seen as a proxy for it.
The news isn’t all bad for Ohio Republicans though. Issue 3, where a yes vote is being framed as a rejection of Barack Obama’s health care plan, is leading for passage by a 49-35 margin. That represents a significant tightening from 3 weeks ago when PPP found the measure ahead by a 55-24 margin, but it might be difficult for the ‘no’ side to make up another 14 points in the final 36 hours before the polls open.
Issue 1, which would make a bunch of changes to the judicial system in Ohio, is trailing for passage by a 48/27 margin but this is another one where voters don’t really understand what it’s about, with 25% still undecided.
“Polls all year have shown how unpopular John Kasich is,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks like Ohioans are going to go to the polls Tuesday and send him a strong message about how unhappy they are with his leadership.”
PPP surveyed 1,022 likely voters from November 4th to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Issue 2 is a referendum on Senate Bill 5, which
is a new law relative to government union
contracts and other government employment
contracts and policies. If the election was
today, would you vote yes to approve this law
or no to reject this law?
Would vote yes on Issue 2 to approve Senate
Bill 5……………………………………………………….36%
Would vote no on Issue 2 to reject Senate Bill
5…………………………………………………………….59%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Issue 3 is a proposed constitutional
amendment to preserve the freedom of
Ohioans to choose their health care and health
care coverage. If the election was today, would
you vote yes or no on Issue 3?
Yes………………………………………………………… 49%
No …………………………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Issue 1 is a proposed constitutional
amendment that would increase the maximum
age at which a person may be elected or
appointed judge, eliminate the authority of the
General Assembly to establish courts of
conciliation, and eliminate the authority of the
Governor to appoint a Supreme Court
commission. If the election was today, would
you vote yes or no on Issue 1?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 33%
Disapprove………… 57%
Not sure ……………. 10%
Q5 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted
Strickland or Republican John Kasich?
Ted Strickland …………………………………………. 55%
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 On Tuesday, Ohio will have a referendum on
whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5,
which was passed earlier this year, and limits
collective bargaining rights for public
employees. If the election was today, would
you vote to approve or reject Senate Bill 5?
Approve SB5…………………………………………… 33%
Reject ……………………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
