Raleigh, N.C. – Despite steady increases in name recognition for Republican challenger Josh Mandel, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to hold onto a modest lead in his first re-election bid.
Brown’s lead has dipped 1 point to 7 points (46-39) since mid-May, despite an 8-point increase in name recognition for Mandel during that same period. Name recognition for Mandel, current state treasurer, is at 63%, up from 39% in February and 55% in mid-May, when the last statewide Senate election poll was conducted.Mandel’s name is more recognized, but not more popular. Mandel’s unfavorability rating has increased 9 points since May and his favorability rating has fallen 1 point since May.
Independents support Brown over Mandel 43-34. Voters over 65, typically a conservative-leaning demographic, support Brown over Mandel 45-36. Mandel wins just one age group, voters 30 to 45. Brown has overwhelming support from young voters (age 18 to 29), 50-29.
“The negativity in the Ohio Senate race is driving up the unfavorables of both candidates,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s not having much impact on the overall horse race- Sherrod Brown continues to the lead the contest by a healthy margin.”
Republican Gov. John Kasich, who had a 38% approval rating among Ohio voters in May, is already seeing his 2014 re-election bid in jeopardy. Four out of 5 potential Democratic challengers are within single digits of Kasich, and 2 of those 5 are within 2 points.
Despite having 38% name recognition in the state, Richard Cordray, former state attorney general and current director of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, trails Kasich by just 1 point, 40-41. Former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, who was ousted by Kasich in 2010, is a close second with a 2-point deficit to Kasich, 42-44. Strickland’s favorability rating (40%) is higher than Kasich’s approval rating (38%).
PPP surveyed 673 Ohio voters from June 21st to June 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .38%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q3 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 46%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Coleman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Cordray?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dennis Kucinich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Strickland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican John Kasich and Democrat Mike
Coleman, who would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 43%
Mike Coleman…………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican John Kasich and Democrat
Richard Cordray, who would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 41%
Richard Cordray………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican John Kasich and Democrat Dennis
Kucinich, who would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 45%
Dennis Kucinich ………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican John Kasich and Democrat Tim
Ryan, who would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 41%
Tim Ryan ……………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican John Kasich and Democrat Ted
Strickland, who would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 44%
Ted Strickland …………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 If it were possible in Ohio, would you support or
oppose recalling Governor Kasich from office
before his term is up?
Support ………………………………………………….. 29%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
