Raleigh, N.C. – Gov. Rick Scott has improved in voters’ minds, with 36% approving and 52% disapproving of his job performance, versus 33-59 when PPP last polled Florida in June. But Scott still has scant company at the bottom of the well of governors. He had been the absolute least popular chief executive in the country, and he is now joined by Connecticut’s Dan Malloy and Ohio’s John Kasich. Scott has improved a bit with both Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats still disliking him far more than his own party likes him. But the main shift has occurred with independents, from 27-64 to 35-52.
Accordingly, Scott would fare a little better in a hypothetical do-over election with the Democrat he barely beat last fall than he did in the June poll. Then, Alex Sink routed Scott, 57-35, but he would fall “only” 52-41 now. That compares to his actual one-point win. Unlike with his approval rating, independents have not budged, still favoring Sink by 21 points, versus Scott’s eight-point lead with them in 2010 exit polls. Scott’s improvent is with his own party, from a 68-23 lead to 78-17. But that is still down from his 88-10 dominance last fall.
Voters have basically the reverse opinion of Scott’s predecessor, and they would love to have him back. 51% see Charlie Crist favorably, and 34% unfavorably. When PPP last asked about Crist in March, his favorability rating was only 46-42. All of the movement in the last half year has come with Democrats and independents. Crist will probably never regain favor with his former party, only a third of whom now see him positively, versus two-thirds of Democrats and 47% of independents.
Crist’s best ballot line for future runs for office would be as a Democrat. 45% think he should join that party, with only 25% thinking he should not. That is 55-20 among Democrats, who would welcome him far more than Republicans and independents want to exile him. If Crist were to oppose Scott in three years, he would beat him, 51-38. That is down from 56-34 in June, but still a better challenge than Sink would give Scott.
PPP surveyed 476 Florida voters from September 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 If you could do last year’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican Rick
Scott or Democrat Alex Sink?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 41%
Alex Sink………………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you think Charlie Crist should become a
Democrat or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 45%
He should not………………………………………….. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Rick Scott and Charlie Crist,
running as a Democrat, who would you vote
for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 38%
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 67%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q12 Are you Jewish, Catholic, Protestant, another
religion, or no religion at all?
Jewish……………………………………………………. 5%
Catholic………………………………………………….. 27%
Protestant ………………………………………………. 51%
Another religion……………………………………….. 5%
No religion at all ………………………………………. 10%
Don’t care to say……………………………………… 1%
