Raleigh, N.C. – Scott Brown’s election over Martha Coakley was a harbinger of things to come for Democrats in 2010, but he did not ride into town on the Tea Party Express. There are too few conservatives (27%) and Republicans (15%) in Massachusetts for that to have succeeded, even in a special election. Instead, because more than 45% of Massachusetts voters are Democrats and another 40% independents, Brown won and has remained popular because he has cultivated an image as a moderate, as someone far more mainstream than a typical Republican. So he leads the full gamut of potential Democratic challengers for a full term by at least nine points—Coakley, 49-40; Rep. Mike Capuano, 48-38; Rep. Ed Markey, 47-37; Harvard Law professor Elizabeth Warren, 47-32; entrepreneur Alan Khazei, 50-31; TV host Rachel Maddow, 49-29; activist Bob Massie, 48-25; and Newton Mayor Setti Warren, 48-23.
48% of Bay State voters approve of Brown’s job performance, including 31% of Democrats and 58% of independents. 36% disapprove. Half see Brown’s views as “about right,” something only 27% say about the GOP as a whole. A third of Democrats and 61% of independents see his ideology as acceptable, while only 11% of Democrats and 31% of independents say that about Brown’s party.
It is no surprise, then, that Brown earns 47-50% of the vote against any of the Democrats, both veterans and little-known figures. Almost everyone is familiar with Coakley, but she still loses a rematch by nine points. Brown takes 19-24% of Democrats’ votes and 61-66% of independents—accounting for 33-37% of the overall vote without even factoring his overwhelming 86-94% share of Republicans into the equation.
“Scott Brown’s still doing a good job of getting voters in Massachusetts to see him as not like all the other Republicans,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s a delicate balance but that combined with the Democrats still not having a high profile challenger has him continuing to look like a favorite for reelection.”
PPP surveyed 957 Massachusetts voters from June 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott
Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Capuano?
Favorable ………….. 27%
Unfavorable……….. 28%
Not sure ……………. 44%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martha Coakley?
Favorable ………….. 49%
Unfavorable……….. 39%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alan Khazei?
Favorable ………….. 15%
Unfavorable……….. 23%
Not sure ……………. 63%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rachel Maddow?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 30%
Not sure ……………. 48%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Markey?
Favorable ………….. 33%
Unfavorable……….. 27%
Not sure ……………. 40%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Massie?
Favorable ………….. 3%
Unfavorable……….. 21%
Not sure ……………. 76%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable ………….. 21%
Unfavorable……….. 17%
Not sure ……………. 61%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Setti Warren?
Favorable ………….. 7%
Unfavorable……….. 19%
Not sure ……………. 74%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Mike
Capuano, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 48%
Mike Capuano…………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha
Coakley, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 49%
Martha Coakley……………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Alan
Khazei, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 50%
Alan Khazei…………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Rachel
Maddow, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 49%
Rachel Maddow………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
