Raleigh, N.C. – Florida’s Rick Scott has retaken the title of least popular governor in the country among the 36 on which PPP has polled this year. His job performance mark has tanked from 36% approving and 52% disapproving when PPP last polled the state in September to 26-58 now, a decline of 16 points on the margin. His greatest fall has been with his own party, which stands at 46-31, down 22 points. Independents disapprove by a 30-55 margin.
If Scott were faced with 2010 opponent Alex Sink in a hypothetical do-over today, he would fall by 16 points (53-37), versus 11 points two months ago. Even worse, if Scott’s predecessor Charlie Crist, formerly a Republican and now an independent, were to run against him as a Democrat in three years, Crist would wipe the floor with the incumbent, 55-32, up ten points from two months ago. Crist would get a quarter of the GOP vote and post a 20-point lead with independents. Even Sink would take 21% of the GOP and lead by 12 with independents. In the actual election, Sink got half that much Republican support and lost by eight points with independents, according to exit polls.
Voters are less sure they want Crist to run on yet a third ballot line than they were before, however. 39% think he should become a Democrat, but 26% think he should not. In September, the spread was 40-25. Democrats have become more welcoming (58-15 veruss 55-20), but Republicans have reversed themselves (26-41 versus 37-34), and independents are now evenly split (24-24, as opposed to 38-22).
Like Scott, freshman Sen. Marco Rubio has become less popular, with voters now breaking even on his job performance (40-40), down from 44-39. If he is the GOP vice-presidential nominee, voters are also less sure he will be an enticement to them. 41% say his nomination would actually make them less likely to vote GOP, and only 24% say more likely. In September, it was a more even 36-30 spread. All of that movement is with the GOP, who now say he would make them more likely to stick with their party by only a 41-24 margin, versus 56-11.
PPP surveyed 700 Florida voters from November 28th to December 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 40%
Disapprove………… 40%
Not sure ……………. 20%
Q2 If Marco Rubio was the Republican candidate
for Vice President next year, would that make
you more or less likely to vote for the
Republican presidential nominee, or would it
not make a difference?
More likely…………. 24%
Less likely …………. 41%
Wouldn’t make a
difference …………..35%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .26%
Disapprove…………. .58%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q4 If you could do last year’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican Rick
Scott or Democrat Alex Sink?
Rick Scott…………… .37%
Alex Sink……………. .53%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you think Charlie Crist should become a
Democrat, or not?
He should become a Democrat………………….. 39%
He should not………………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Rick Scott and Charlie Crist,
running as a Democrat, who would you vote
for?
Rick Scott…………… .32%
Charlie Crist ……….. .55%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q8 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democrat …………… .46%
Republican…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
