Raleigh, N.C. – Max Baucus could be in trouble in 2014 if the out-of-work progressive icon Brian Schweitzer decides to challenge him in the primary. Montana Democrats have a significantly better opinion of their term-limited governor than their six-term senator. 81% approve and only 14% disapprove of Schweitzer’s performance, versus a 70-23 spread for Baucus. Schweitzer would take an outright majority (51%) of primary voters’ support, with Baucus managing only about a third (34%). Schweitzer draws his strength from the two largest ideological groups in the party, winning by 28 points with the third who say they are moderate and by 12 points with the 38% plurality who claim to be somewhat liberal. Only among the 2% who say they are very conservative does Baucus lead, and only by seven points.
The Republican primaries for House and governor come down mostly to name recognition at this point, as other than Rick Hill, of whom 42% have an opinion, 76-89% of these engaged partisans have no clue about the candidates. Steve Daines is favored 22-14 over John Abarr to replace Denny Rehberg on the congressional ticket. Hill unsurprisingly leads for the gubernatorial slot, with 35% to Neil Livingstone’s 15%, Jeff Essmann’s 11%, Ken Miller’s 6%, and three others with 1-2%. 64% are undecided for House, and 28% for governor.
Democrats are considerably more familiar with their leading gubernatorial candidates, with only 37-60% unable to express an opinion of them. Therefore, name recognition, while still powerful, is less a deciding factor at this early stage. Steve Bullock is actually slightly less known than and equally as liked as John Bohlinger, but the Attorney General leads Schweitzer’s number two 40-27. Bohlinger’s lifelong Republican affiliation likely has a lot to do with his deficit. Four other candidates place in single digits, and 18% are undecided.
PPP surveyed 333 usual Montana Democratic primary voters, for a +/- 5.4% margin of error, and 382 usual Republican primary voters, for a +/- 5.0% margin of error, from June 16th to 19th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 70%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Schweitzer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 81%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Bohlinger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Bullock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Wanzenried?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q6 If the Democratic candidates for Senate in
2014 were Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer,
who would you vote for?
Max Baucus ……………………………………………. 34%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Given the choices of John Bohlinger, Carl
Borgquist, Steve Bullock, Larry Jent, Jim
Lynch, and Dave Wanzenried, who would you
most like to be the Democratic candidate for
Governor next year?
John Bohlinger………………………………………… 27%
Carl Borgquist …………………………………………. 2%
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 40%
Larry Jent……………………………………………….. 2%
Jim Lynch……………………………………………….. 4%
Dave Wanzenreid ……………………………………. 7%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 18%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 38%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 10%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
