Raleigh, N.C. – When Brian Schweitzer was sworn in almost six years ago, he was the first Democrat to serve as Montana’s governor in 16 years, and the first elected in 24. He is now one of the most popular governors in the country, and has made a name for himself within the national party as an effective chief executive in a heavily red state. In PPP’s early look toward the 2012 election, however, it appears a Republican may be sitting at the term-limited Schweitzer’s desk come January 2013.
Schweitzer posts a 55-33 job approval rating, good for fourth most popular of over 30 governors PPP has measured in 2010. He gets the nod from 28% of Republicans, an unusual level of crossover good feelings in this highly polarized environment. That goes along with a 58-29 margin among independents and 86-6 with Democrats.
Currently, however, neither a generic Democrat nor an actual candidate is favored by voters to retain the office for Schweitzer’s party. A generic Republican beats an unnamed Democrat, 49-39. Republican former Congressman Rick Hill leads Democratic Attorney General Steve Bullock by a similar 41-31 margin, though 28% are as yet undecided. The generic Republican tops the Democrat, 38-36, with independents, but Bullock bests Hill, 30-26. Bullock’s main problem is not only the Republican turnout advantage, but that he earns the support of only 68% of his party, with Hill at 79% of the GOP. The generic candidates are more evenly matched on that front, 89% for the Democrat and 94% for the Republican, so Bullock has room to grow.
Neither man is well known, with over 60% having no opinion, but Bullock has a decent 22-14 favorability rating to Hill’s mediocre 16-19. Bullock is very well liked in his own party and by independents, and almost breaks even with Republicans, but Hill has a 5-35 with Democrats and a 12-18 with independents. If Bullock can take advantage of Hill’s negatives, he could woo the undecided, particularly the huge 44% plurality of independents who are still unsure.
“Two years out, this race is obviously wide open,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,176 Montana voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Schweitzer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 If there was an election for Governor today in
Montana generally speaking do you think you
would vote for a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat ………….. 39%
Republican ………… 49%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Bullock?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not sure ……………. 64%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Hill?
Favorable ………….. 16%
Unfavorable……….. 19%
Not sure ……………. 65%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor in 2012 were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Rick
Hill, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 31%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q7 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
