Raleigh,
N.C.- PPP’s first poll of the Michigan Gubernatorial race since Mark
Schauer’s official entry finds the Democrat leading incumbent Rick Snyder
42/38. PPP’s polling of this match up over the last six months has been very
consistent- in March Schauer also led Snyder by 4 points and in December he had
a 5 point advantage.
Schauer’s initial lead has a lot more to do with Snyder than it does with
himself. Even after his official candidacy announcement, he has just 38%
statewide name recognition. But Snyder continues to be one of the most
unpopular Governors in the country with only 40% of voters approving of him to
52% who disapprove. He’s at 40/51 with independents and Democrats (78%
disapproval) dislike him a good deal more than Republicans (68% approval) like
him.
Snyder’s role in the passage of right to work legislation continues to be a
big problem for him. Just 40% of voters support that law to 50% who oppose it,
numbers that have not seen any improvement since the initial furor after it
passed in December. Snyder continues to have issues with his brand, as only 34%
of voters now consider him to be ‘one tough nerd’ to 45% who don’t.
“Rick Snyder’s numbers have been in a holding pattern since December,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His approval numbers continue
to be poor and he continues to lag behind his potential opposition for next
year.”
Republicans in the legislature continue to face backlash from the voters as
well. Just 27% have a favorable opinion of them to 59% with a negative one, and
their 25/61 spread with independents is even worse than their overall numbers.
The Democrats in the legislature aren’t popular either- a 38/43 favorability
rating- but they look good enough in comparison to the Republicans to hold a
48/38 lead on the generic legislative ballot.
PPP surveyed 697 Michigan voters from May 30th
to June 2nd. The margin of error was +/- 3.7%. This poll was not authorized or
paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted
through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Schauer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q3 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Mark
Schauer, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 38%
Mark Schauer …………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you support or oppose the right-to-work
legislation passed in Michigan late last year?
Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the Michigan legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage in Michigan to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 49%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you consider Rick Snyder to be ‘one tough
nerd,’ or not?
Consider him ‘one tough nerd’ …………………… 34%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q10 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
