Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final poll of the special election in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional
District finds a race that’s too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford
leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford
represents a 10 point reversal from PPP’s poll of the race two weeks ago, when
Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.
Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting
Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say
they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as
ideologically ‘about right.’ Colbert Busch’s favorability rating has dropped a
net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at
50/44.
If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they
personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That’s why
Sanford’s campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who
are unpopular in the district, and that’s been a key in helping him to make
this race competitive again. Nancy Pelosi has a 24/61 approval rating in SC-1
and although voters don’t like Sanford, they do like him better than Pelosi by
a 53/37 margin.
The other key development in this race over the last two weeks is that
Republicans are returning to the electorate. On our last poll, conducted right
after the trespassing charges against Sanford became public, we found that the
likely electorate had voted for Mitt Romney by only 5 points in a district that
he actually won by 18. That suggested many Republican voters were depressed and
planning to stay home. On our final poll we find an electorate that’s Romney
+13- that’s still more Democratic than the turnout from last fall, but it’s a
lot better for Sanford than it was a couple weeks ago.
“The special election in South Carolina couldn’t be much closer,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “At this point it’s just a question
of whether voters are more put off by Mark Sanford or the Democrats in
Washington.”
PPP surveyed 1,239
likely voters on May 4th and 5th. The margin of error for the survey
is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates in the special election for
Congress are Democrat Elizabeth Colbert
Busch, Republican Mark Sanford, and Green
Party candidate Eugene Platt. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Elizabeth Colbert Busch……………………………. 46%
Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 47%
Eugene Platt …………………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Colbert Busch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Sanford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Do you think Elizabeth Colbert Busch’s
positions on the issues are too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 47%
Too conservative……………………………………… 4%
About right ……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you think Mark Sanford’s positions on the
issues are too liberal, too conservative, or
about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 8%
Too conservative……………………………………… 38%
About right ……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nancy Pelosi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 Do you have a higher opinion of Mark Sanford
or Barack Obama?
Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you have a higher opinion of Mark Sanford
or Nancy Pelosi?
Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 53%
Nancy Pelosi…………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stephen Colbert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jenny Sanford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Larry Flynt?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q13 Does Nikki Haley’s endorsement of Mark
Sanford make you more or less likely to vote
for him, or does it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 12%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 27%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q14 Does Tim Scott’s endorsement of Mark Sanford
make you more or less likely to vote for him, or
does it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 21%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 24%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q15 Does Lindsey Graham’s endorsement of Mark
Sanford make you more or less likely to vote
for him, or does it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 18%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 25%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q16 Does Larry Flynt’s endorsement of Mark
Sanford make you more or less likely to vote
for him, or does it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 6%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 23%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 71%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q17 Do you favor or oppose requiring background
checks on individuals who purchase guns at
gun shows?
Strongly favor……… .68%
Somewhat favor….. .16%
Somewhat oppose . . 8%
Strongly oppose….. . 4%
Not sure …………….. . 3%
Q18 Does the Republican Party’s opposition to
background checks at gun shows make you
more or less likely to support its candidates in
the next election?
More likely………….. .19%
Less likely ………….. .42%
Doesn’t make a
difference …………….35%
Not sure …………….. . 4%
Q19 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 55%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q23 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 31%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 36%
