Raleigh, N.C. – Former Senator Rick Santorum is looking more and more likely to jump into the race to challenge President Obama in 2012, but he would not start out with any advantage even in his home state of Pennsylvania—only Ron Paul clearly falls behind him when he is included.  The four usual frontrunners—Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney—are, as nearly everywhere else PPP has tested the field, in a statistical tie for first in both Illinois and Pennsylvania, with or without Santorum.  In all three test races, the top four or five candidates are in double digits, with as little as one and no more than seven points between the top and bottom.

Without Santorum in the Pennsylvania slate, Romney gets 20% to Gingrich, Huckabee, and Palin all at 19%, with Paul back at 8%, 4% preferring another unnamed candidate, and 12% undecided. 

With Santorum named, he gets 15%, and Gingrich falls to 14%, Romney to 16%, Huckabee and Palin to 17% each, and Paul to 6%, with 17% undecided—an even more dead-even result.  Santorum cuts most into Gingrich and Romney’s support, particularly among conservatives and men.  Palin and Huckabee’s bases are the least affected, for they have the highest support among women (though Romney ties Palin for second when Santorum is not included).

In Illinois, there is only a little more separation—Gingrich at 23%, Huckabee at 21%, Palin at 18%, Romney at 16%, and Paul and “someone else” both at 7%, with 9% undecided.

 “Rick Santorum should probably not be encouraged by these results, but with the race so wide-open, the slightest wave from a new candidate could have a big impact on the photo-finish state of the race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 400 Pennsylvania and Illinois Republican primary voters from August 14^th to 16^th.  The margin of error for each survey is +/-4.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum
who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 17%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 15%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%

Q2 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin,
Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney, who would you
vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else…………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q3 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Conservative…………………………………………… 70%

Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q5 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%