Raleigh, N.C. – The prospective race between President Obama and Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney remains as tight as ever in North Carolina, but for the first time since Rick Perry’s peak in September, someone other than Romney comes closest to the president in the Tar Heel State. Romney could also stand to lose the state by a larger margin if newly announced Libertarian Gary Johnson wages a serious campaign.
Obama edges out Romney by one point, 46-45; it was a 46-all tie in last month’s survey. Newt Gingrich has fallen two points from the zenith of his surge in the polls; he trailed 49-45 in December, and 49-43 now. Ron Paul lags by a similar 47-41 (47-42). And Perry also has not moved (49-41 versus 50-42).
But it is the Iowa caucus’ co-winner Rick Santorum who performs best, tying the president at 46%. Santorum also has the best favorability numbers of the Republican candidates, with 35% seeing him positively and 42% negatively, edging Romney’s 34-48 and far outpacing Gingrich’s 28-57, Paul’s 21-58, and Perry’s 18-63. The president’s approval rating is almost unchanged from last month (47-49 versus 47-50).
Johnson would take 8% of the vote in North Carolina, giving Obama a 45-41 edge over Romney. Johnson does not hurt Obama at all with Democrats, Republicans, or independents. Head-to-head with Romney and in the three-way contest, he takes 77% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans, and is down to 30% of independents from 31% against just Romney. But Johnson does hurt Romney, bringing him from 82% to 76% of the GOP and from 51% to 40% of independents. Johnson earns 14% of independents, 9% of Republicans, and 4% of Democrats.
“North Carolina continues to look like it will be one of the closest states in the country this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And that means every little thing, like a stronger than usual Libertarian candidate, could make the difference.”
PPP surveyed 780 North Carolina voters from January 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q18
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
