Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for President in North Carolina looks very competitive, with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney tied at 30%. Newt Gingrich is 3rd at 19% with Ron Paul bringing up the rear at 13%.
Two weeks ago Romney had a four point lead over Santorum in the state. Romney’s support has remained pretty steady since then, but Santorum’s grown from 27% to 30%. It’s no coincidence that Santorum’s support has increased as Gingrich’s has declined from 24% to 19%. More and more conservatives are unifying around Santorum as the alternative to Romney. If Gingrich dropped out of the race Santorum would open up a 6 point lead in North Carolina with 43% to 37% for Romney and 13% for Paul.
We also looked at everything else on the North Carolina Republican ballot this fall as well:
-Pat McCrory’s just getting stronger in the primary for Governor. 64% of likely voters now say he’ll be their pick, up from 57% a month ago. Jim Mahan at 3%, Jim Harney and Charles Kenneth Moss at 2%, Scott Jones at 1%, and Paul Wright with less than 1% round out the field.
-It looks like there are two early tiers of candidates in the Lieutenant Governor’s race. Dan Forest with 11%, Dale Folwell at 10%, and Tony Gurley at 9% are 5 points clear of Grey Mills at 4% and Arthur Jason Rich at 2%.
-There are two tiers of candidates in the Auditor’s race as well. For the second poll in a row Debra Goldman and Greg Dority are tied at 11% with Rudy Wright and Fern Shubert each at 4%, and Joseph Hank DeBragga at 2%.
“The only real solid conclusion you can make on the down ballot races in North Carolina at this point is that the undecideds are in the lead,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters are not tuned in or paying attention to the candidates yet.”
PPP surveyed 561 Republican primary voters from March 22nd to 25th. The margin of error is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 30%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 52%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 48%
Q7 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 20%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 29%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q10 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Jim Harney, Scott Jones, Jim Mahan, Pat
McCrory, Charles Kenneth Moss, and Paul
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jim Harney……………………………………………… 2%
Scott Jones…………………………………………….. 1%
Jim Mahan ……………………………………………… 3%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 64%
Charles Kenneth Moss……………………………… 2%
Paul Wright …………………………………………….. 0%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q11 The Republican candidates for Lieutenant
Governor are Dale Folwell, Dan Forest, Tony
Gurley, Grey Mills, and Arthur Jason Rich. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Dale Folwell ……………………………………………. 10%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 11%
Tony Gurley ……………………………………………. 9%
Grey Mills……………………………………………….. 4%
Arthur Jason Rich ……………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 65%
Q12 The Republican candidates for State Auditor
are Joseph Hank DeBragga, Greg Dority,
Debra Goldman, Fern Shubert, and Rudy
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Joseph Hank DeBragga……………………………. 2%
Greg Dority …………………………………………….. 11%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 11%
Fern Shubert…………………………………………… 4%
Rudy Wright ……………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 67%
Q13 The Republican candidates for Agriculture
Commissioner are Bill McManus and Steve
Troxler. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Bill McManus ………………………………………….. 15%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 50%
Q14 The Republican candidates for Insurance
Commissioner are Mike Causey, James
McCall, and Richard Morgan. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Mike Causey …………………………………………… 10%
James McCall …………………………………………. 8%
Richard Morgan ………………………………………. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 66%
Q15 The Republican candidates for Secretary of
State are Michael Beitler, A.J. Daoud, Kenn
Gardner, and Ed Goodwin. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Michael Beitler ………………………………………… 3%
A.J. Daoud……………………………………………… 8%
Kenn Gardner …………………………………………. 13%
Ed Goodwin ……………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 68%
Q16 The Republican candidates for Superintendent
of Public Instruction are Richard Alexander,
Mark Crawford, Ray Ernest Martin, David
Scholl, and John Tedesco. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Richard Alexander …………………………………… 9%
Mark Crawford ………………………………………… 5%
Ray Ernest Martin ……………………………………. 4%
David Scholl……………………………………………. 3%
John Tedesco………………………………………….. 13%
Undecided………………………………………………. 66%
Q17 The Republican candidates for State Treasurer
are Frank Roche and Steve Royal. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Frank Roche …………………………………………… 11%
Steve Royal ……………………………………………. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 73%
Q18 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q19 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 61%
Are not …………………………………………………… 39%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 1%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 42%
Man……………………………………………………….. 58%
Q22 If you are a Republican, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Republican……………………………………………… 77%
Independent……………………………………………. 23%
Q23 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Q24
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 24%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 19%
