Raleigh, N.C. – More a reflection of the national primary picture than where the North Carolina Republican presidential primary will actually end up, Rick Santorum has taken his newfound fame from tying for the win in the Iowa caucus to a virtual tie in the Tar Heel State. Yesterday, PPP also showed Santorum tying the president in a head-to-head, besting last night’s New Hampshire primary winner Mitt Romney by one point.
Newt Gingrich leads in N.C. with 25% to Santorum’s 24%, Romney’s 22%, and everyone else in single digits: Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1%, with 11% undecided. Last month, at the height of his surge in the polls, Gingrich led with 51% to Romney’s 14%, with Santorum in a distant sixth at 3%, so Gingrich’s support has been halved. Most of his lost votes have gone to Santorum, and some to Romney, who had been Gingrich’s supporters’ top second choice until Santorum came on the scene.
The field will likely be pared down to two or three candidates by the time the North Carolina primary rolls around, or the nomination may already be wrapped up. But if Santorum got to face Romney one-on-one right now in this state, he would trounce him, 51-33. Gingrich would also just edge out Romney, 43-42, while Romney would easily dispatch Perry (52-35) and Paul (67-21). That speaks to what could happen if the conservative wing of the party is able to coalesce around one well-financed and likable opponent down the stretch. And likable Santorum is, at least to North Carolina Republicans. 62% see the former Pennsylvania senator favorably and 22% unfavorably, far outpacing Gingrich’s 48-35, Romney’s 46-38, Perry’s 38-44, and Paul’s 29-56.
“These numbers show that Mitt Romney is beatable,”said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he’s not beatable while the opposition to him is fragmented among so many different candidates. Gingrich and Perry would have to drop out and throw their support behind Santorum to stop Romney.”
PPP surveyed 555 usual North Carolina Republican primary voters from January 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul,
Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and
Buddy Roemer, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 25%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 24%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q7 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 42%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 58%
Q8 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 17%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 0%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .42%
Newt Gingrich …….. .43%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .67%
Ron Paul ……………. .21%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .52%
Rick Perry ………….. .35%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .33%
Rick Santorum……. .51%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 44%
Man……………………………………………………….. 56%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
