Polls

Santorum leads Romney by 11 in Washington

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by double digits in advance of the March 3rd Republican caucuses, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Santorum leads Romney 38%-27%, with Ron Paul taking 15% and Newt Gingrich placing 4th with 12%. Santorum benefits from very high favorability numbers, with 69% of caucusgoers holding a favorable opinion of him and just 18% unfavorable. Mitt Romney also has a net positive favorability rating, but voters opinion of him is more lukewarm at 47% – 42%.  Ron Paul (38/49) and Newt Gingrich (39/46) had net unfavorable opinion ratings.

Santorum would benefit greatly if Newt Gingrich were to leave the race. Without Gingrich in the field, Santorum’s lead over Romney expands to 21 points, 49-28. Among current Gingrich supporters, Santorum is the second choice of 55% of them compared to just 16% who say they would go to Romney.

Santorum leads Romney among Evangelical Christians (50-18), Tea Party members (50-20), “somewhat conservative” voters (36-33), and “very conservative” voters (50-19). Romney leads Santorum among non-Evangelicals (36-26), non-Tea Party members (32-30), and voters who describe themselves as “moderate” (29-27.

All that being said, only 50% of voters say that they are strongly committed to their candidate, and 50% say they might end up supporting someone else. Among voters strongly committed to their candidate, Santorum leads Romney by just 8 points, 40-32. Among those who say their minds could change, Santorum’s lead is larger at 43-28.

“Rick Santorum’s the favorite in Washington for now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But with half of voters open to changing their minds, Romney wins in Michigan and Arizona could swing the momentum back in his favor.”

PPP will release numbers looking at the Governor’s race, gay marriage, and marijuana legalization tomorrow.

PPP surveyed 400 likely Washington caucus voters between February 16th and 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 15%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%

Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 50%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 50%

Q7 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 37%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 15%

Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 16%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q9 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q10 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 50%
Are not …………………………………………………… 50%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%

Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%

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