Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum’s taken the lead in the Republican Presidential race in North Carolina with 31% to 25% for Mitt Romney and 23% for Newt Gingrich. A month ago Gingrich and Romney were tied for the lead with Santorum running 10 points behind.
Romney’s staying competitive in North Carolina despite the fact that GOP voters there are pretty tepid toward him. Only 43% have a favorable opinion and an equal 43% see him negatively. That makes him less popular than both Gingrich (45/41) and Santorum (58/29).
Romney’s really benefiting from Gingrich continuing to be strong enough in the South that he splits the conservative vote with Santorum, unlike in other parts of the country where conservatives are increasingly unifying around Santorum as the alternative to Romney. Among voters identifying as ‘very conservative’ Santorum leads Gingrich 35-32 with Romney at 19%.
The picture’s a little more clear in the GOP race for Governor. Pat McCrory leads with 57% to 3% for Jim Harney, 2% each for Scott Jones and Jim Mahan, 1% for Charles Kenneth Moss, and 0% for Paul Wright.
Notes on the other GOP primaries:
-72% of voters are undecided for Lieutenant Governor with Dale Folwell at 9%, Dan Forest at 7%, Tony Gurley at 6%, Grey Mills at 4%, and Arthur Jason Rich at 2%. Predictably Folwell leads in the Triad, Forest is up in metro Charlotte, and Gurley has the advantage in the Triangle. This definitely looks like a race that could have a runoff in its future.
-In the race for State Auditor Debra Goldman and Greg Dority separate themselves from the pack a little with 11% each to 5% for Rudy Wright, and 3% each for Fern Shubert and Joseph Hank DeBragga.
PPP surveyed 411 likely Republican primary voters on February 29th and March 1st. The margin of error is +/-4.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 31%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 52%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 48%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 33%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q9 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Jim Harney, Scott Jones, Jim Mahan, Pat
McCrory, Charles Kenneth Moss, and Paul
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jim Harney……………………………………………… 3%
Scott Jones…………………………………………….. 2%
Jim Mahan ……………………………………………… 2%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 57%
Charles Kenneth Moss……………………………… 1%
Paul Wright …………………………………………….. 0%
Undecided………………………………………………. 35%
Q10 The Republican candidates for Lieutenant
Governor are Dale Folwell, Dan Forest, Tony
Gurley, Grey Mills, and Arthur Jason Rich. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Dale Folwell ……………………………………………. 9%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 7%
Tony Gurley ……………………………………………. 6%
Grey Mills……………………………………………….. 4%
Arthur Jason Rich ……………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 72%
Q11 The Republican candidates for State Auditor
are Joseph Hank DeBragga, Greg Dority,
Debra Goldman, Fern Shubert, and Rudy
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Joseph Hank DeBragga……………………………. 3%
Greg Dority …………………………………………….. 11%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 11%
Fern Shubert…………………………………………… 3%
Rudy Wright ……………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 67%
Q12 The Republican candidates for Agriculture
Commissioner are Bill McManus and Steve
Troxler. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Bill McManus ………………………………………….. 12%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 56%
Q13 The Republican candidates for Insurance
Commissioner are Mike Causey, James
McCall, and Richard Morgan. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Mike Causey …………………………………………… 7%
James McCall …………………………………………. 8%
Richard Morgan ………………………………………. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 68%
Q14 The Republican candidates for Secretary of
State are Michael Beitler, A.J. Daoud, Kenn
Gardner, and Ed Goodwin. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Michael Beitler ………………………………………… 4%
A.J. Daoud……………………………………………… 6%
Kenn Gardner …………………………………………. 13%
Ed Goodwin ……………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 68%
Q15 The Republican candidates for Superintendent
of Public Instruction are Richard Alexander,
Mark Crawford, Ray Ernest Martin, David
Scholl, and John Tedesco. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Richard Alexander …………………………………… 7%
Mark Crawford ………………………………………… 6%
Ray Ernest Martin ……………………………………. 4%
David Scholl……………………………………………. 5%
John Tedesco………………………………………….. 12%
Undecided………………………………………………. 66%
Q16 The Republican candidates for State Treasurer
are Frank Roche and Steve Royal. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Frank Roche …………………………………………… 12%
Steve Royal ……………………………………………. 13%
Undecided………………………………………………. 76%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 49%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q19 If you are a Republican, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Republican……………………………………………… 75%
Independent……………………………………………. 25%
Q20 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Q21
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 22%
828………………………………………………………… 18%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 16%
