Raleigh, N.C. –Brian Sandoval bucked the trend of states electing the candidate from the opposite party as their unpopular governor last fall. Jim Gibbons left office with a dismal 25-67 approval rating, but Sandoval’s overwhelming popularity and Democrat Rory Reid’s unpopularity allowed Sandoval to beat Reid by 12 points. Sandoval has not fared as well in public opinion since taking office. His 44-38 approval margin puts him at about the median position of the 38 currently serving governors on which PPP has polled. But that is down from the 56-33 favorability rating he posted just prior to the November election. That decline has come across the board. 29% of Democrats had a favorable opinion of Sandoval late last October, but only 19% now approve of his job performance so far. He has dropped from 83% to only 71% with his own party, and from 58% to 50% with independents.
But just as he defied the trend last November, Sandoval now also escapes the voters’ remorse which many of his GOP colleagues now face. In Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, voters would turn their unpopular new Republican governors out of office and elect their Democratic opponents if they could do last fall’s election over again. But Sandoval would still top Reid, 51-41.
Unlike his son, Reid’s father Harry squeaked by in his re-election bid, and though unpopular, with a 43-51 approval spread, he is still seen more positively than the younger Reid. John Ensign was probably wise to retire and resign. He was already near the bottom of the bin in January, at 35-50, but that has fallen further to 29-55, making him the second least popular of 81 currently seated senators on which PPP has polled.
Nevada is one of few states to have legal domestic partnerships for gay couples. 41% of Nevadans, including 46% of the GOP and half of independents, support the status quo, and a further third, including half of Democrats, believe the state should move to full marriage equality. Only a quarter oppose all legal recognition of same-sex relationships.
PPP surveyed 491 Nevada voters from April 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Sandoval’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rory Reid?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Rory
Reid or Republican Brian Sandoval?
Rory Reid……………………………………………….. 41%
Brian Sandoval ……………………………………….. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Harry
Reid’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Ensign’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..33%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………41%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
