Raleigh, N.C. – There has been some frustration at times among Democratic activists over how President Obama has conducted his battles with the Republicans in Congress and stood up for the party’s values. But when push comes to shove, there is little to no desire for the president to actually be challenged in a primary, and even if he were opposed by some of the most stridently liberal figures in the party, the president would almost certainly prevail. There is no better example of that than in Vermont.
Though he is ostensibly an independent, Bernie Sanders is more popular than the president with his home-state Democratic primary voters. 90% approve and only 7% disapprove of his performance in the Senate. The spread is still a strong 81-11 for Obama. The state is also home to another nationally popular figure with the left: former governor Howard Dean, who has a 77-12 favorability mark.
But neither would defeat the President if they were on the primary ballot in their own state. Obama would defeat Sanders, 52-33, and Dean, 61-24. The quarter who call themselves very liberal would prefer Sanders, 50-38, but the 38% somewhat liberal plurality favors the president, 62-23, as does the next biggest group, the moderates, 57-25. Obama actually wins 57-30 with the two-thirds who are Democrats; it is the third who are independents who split 40-40. President Obama trounces Dean across the board.
“If there’s not a big appetite for a liberal primary challenger to Barack Obama in Vermont, which two major liberal icons call home, then it’s safe to say there’s not much of a desire for that anywhere,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
In the GOP race for president, neighboring Massachusetts’ Mitt Romney tops with 26% to Sarah Palin’s and Michele Bachmann’s 16%, Rick Perry’s 10%, Herman Cain’s 9%, Ron Paul’s 7%, Newt Gingrich’s 6%, Jon Huntsman’s 3%, and Tim Pawlenty’s 1%.
PPP surveyed 617 usual Vermont Democratic primary voters, with a +/- 3.9% margin of error, and 366 usual Republican primary voters, with a +/- 5.1% margin of error, from July 28th to 31st. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 81%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Bernie Sanders’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 90%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Howard Dean?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 77%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 If Bernie Sanders challenged Barack Obama
for the Democratic Presidential nomination,
who would you vote for?
Bernie Sanders ……………………………………….. 33%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 If Howard Dean challenged Barack Obama for
the Democratic Presidential nomination, who
would you vote for?
Howard Dean………………………………………….. 24%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 61%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 38%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 6%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 66%
Republican……………………………………………… 2%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 16%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 1%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 26%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 5%
Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
president, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 21%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 45%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 27%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 70%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
