Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP’s last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44.
The biggest change Ryan’s selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney’s gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There’s also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that’s down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll.
Ryan isn’t exactly a universally popular figure in his home state. 49% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. But that does give him the best numbers of anybody on either ticket in the state. Obama has a 46% approval rating with 50% of voters disapproving of him, Romney has a 45/48 favorability rating, and Joe Biden stands at 41/48.
A big reason Wisconsin remains so competitive for the GOP is that the electorate looks like it will be considerably more Republican leaning than it was in 2008, reflecting the continued high energy level of the party’s voters after its victory in June’s recall election. We find an electorate that’s 34% Republican and 32% Democratic. Exit polls in 2008 showed Democrats with a 6 point turnout advantage, 39% to 33%. Although the enthusiasm gap that plagued Democrats nationally in 2010 has dissipated some places, it appears to still be a real issue for them in Wisconsin.
Choosing Ryan as his running mate isn’t giving Romney any trouble with seniors in Wisconsin. That’s actually where his greatest strength is, leading Obama 52-43 with them. Which isn’t to say the Ryan Plan is popular in Wisconsin- only 40% of voters support it to 46% who are opposed. But the concern with it is coming much more from young voters than seniors.
“Wisconsin really is starting to look like a toss up in the Presidential race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question is whether this is just a bounce from Paul Ryan’s selection as running mate, or if the increased Republican competitiveness will prove to be lasting.”
PPP surveyed 1,308 likely Wisconsin voters from August 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 If you were allowed to vote directly for Vice
President, would you choose Democrat Joe
Biden or Republican Paul Ryan?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 44%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q7 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan’s
proposal for reforming Medicare?
Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
